Skip Navigation Links weather.gov   
NOAA logo - Click to go to the NOAA homepage National Weather Service   NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS homepage
National Hurricane Center
Local forecast by
"City, St" or "ZIP"

 
Alternate Formats
   Text     |   Mobile
   Email   |   RSS XML/RSS logo
   About Alternates
Cyclone Forecasts
   Latest Advisory
   Past Advisories
   Audio/Podcasts
   About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
   Atlantic & E Pacific
   Gridded Marine
   About Marine
Tools & Data
   Satellite | Radar
   Analysis Tools
   Aircraft Recon
   GIS Datasets
   Data Archive
Development
   Experimental
   Research
   Forecast Accuracy
Outreach & Education
   Prepare
   Storm Surge
   About Cyclones
   Cyclone Names
   Wind Scale
   Most Extreme
   Forecast Models
   Breakpoints
   Resources
   Glossary | Acronyms
   Frequent Questions
Our Organization
   About NHC
   Mission & Vision
   Staff | Q&A
   Visitors | Virtual Tour
   Library Branch
   NCEP | Newsletter
Contact Us
   Comments
Follow the National Hurricane Cent
er on Facebook Follow the National Hurricane Center on Twitter
FirstGov.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.
 
 

Tropical Depression KARINA


ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL DEPRESSION KARINA DISCUSSION NUMBER   4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP122008
200 AM PDT WED SEP 03 2008
 
ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE EXPOSED CIRCULATION
CENTER IS SEPARATED ABOUT 110 MILES EAST OF THE REMAINING
CONVECTIVE CLUSTER.  PERSISTENT EASTERLY SHEAR AND A STABILIZING
ATMOSPHERE APPEAR TO BE TAKING ITS TOLL ON THE CYCLONE.  THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS HELD AT 30 KT BUT BASED ON THIS MORNING'S QUIKSCAT
OVERPASS...THIS COULD BE GENEROUS.  FURTHER WEAKENING IS FORECAST
AND KARIN COULD BECOME A REMNANT LOW WITHIN 36 HOURS OR LESS.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 270/6.  KARINA SHOULD MOVE SLOWLY
WESTWARD DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS WITHIN THE LOW-LAYER FLOW OF A
RIDGE GRADUALLY BUILDING WESTWARD FROM BAJA CALIFORNIA. 
AFTERWARD...DYNAMICAL MODELS ARE INDICATING A MORE NORTHEASTERLY
STEERING FLOW IN THE LOWER PORTIONS OF THE TROPOSPHERE WHICH SHOULD
INITIATE A MORE SOUTHWEST DRIFT.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS
THIS SCENARIO AND IS BASED ON A BLEND OF THE GFS AND THE UKMET.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      03/0900Z 20.0N 113.7W    30 KT
 12HR VT     03/1800Z 20.1N 114.5W    30 KT
 24HR VT     04/0600Z 20.1N 115.3W    25 KT
 36HR VT     04/1800Z 20.0N 116.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 48HR VT     05/0600Z 19.8N 116.4W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 72HR VT     06/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS/PASCH
 
NNNN


Quick Navigation Links:
Tropical Cyclone Forecasts  -  Tropical Marine Forecasts  -  Data Archive
Outreach  -  Prepare  -  About Cyclones  -  About NHC  -  Contact Us

NOAA/ National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida 33165-2149 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Credits
Information Quality
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Tuesday, 21-Apr-2009 12:09:41 UTC