Skip Navigation Links weather.gov   
NOAA logo - Click to go to the NOAA homepage National Weather Service   NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS homepage
National Hurricane Center
Local forecast by
"City, St" or "ZIP"

 
Alternate Formats
   Text     |   Mobile
   Email   |   RSS XML/RSS logo
   About Alternates
Cyclone Forecasts
   Latest Advisory
   Past Advisories
   Audio/Podcasts
   About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
   Atlantic & E Pacific
   Gridded Marine
   About Marine
Tools & Data
   Satellite | Radar
   Analysis Tools
   Aircraft Recon
   GIS Datasets
   Data Archive
Development
   Experimental
   Research
   Forecast Accuracy
Outreach & Education
   Prepare
   Storm Surge
   About Cyclones
   Cyclone Names
   Wind Scale
   Most Extreme
   Forecast Models
   Breakpoints
   Resources
   Glossary | Acronyms
   Frequent Questions
Our Organization
   About NHC
   Mission & Vision
   Staff | Q&A
   Visitors | Virtual Tour
   Library Branch
   NCEP | Newsletter
Contact Us
   Comments
Follow the National Hurricane Cent
er on Facebook Follow the National Hurricane Center on Twitter
FirstGov.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.
 
 

Tropical Depression JULIO


ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL DEPRESSION JULIO DISCUSSION NUMBER  11
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP112008
800 PM PDT MON AUG 25 2008
 
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE
LOW-LEVEL AND MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL CIRCULATIONS HAVE DECOUPLED...
WITH THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION HUGGING THE COASTLINE OF
EAST-CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA WHILE THE MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL
CIRCULATIONS MOVE NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF
MAINLAND MEXICO. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM BOTH TAFB AND
SAB NO LONGER SUPPORT TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH AND...THEREFORE...
JULIO HAS BEEN DOWNGRADED TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION.
 
JULIO HAS DECREASED ITS FORWARD SPEED NOW THAT THE CYCLONE IS
DECOUPLING AND IT IS NO LONGER A DEEP SYSTEM. THE LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG OR
NEAR THE EAST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA AS IT GETS DRAWN INTO THE
BROADER CYCLONIC GYRE OF A THERMAL LOW OVER THE REGION. THE LATEST
MODEL GUIDANCE IS WIDELY DIVERGENT AFTER 24 HOURS...SUGGESTING THAT
STEERING CURRENTS WILL COLLAPSE. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS
VERY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY TRACK.
 
CONTINUED WEAKENING IS FORECAST DUE TO MODERATE VERTICAL SHEAR AND
TERRAIN INTERACTION...AND JULIO SHOULD STEADILY SPIN DOWN AS A
TROPICAL CYCLONE. HOWEVER...MOISTURE FROM JULIO WILL STILL CREATE A
HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT ALONG THE WEST COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO...AND
THAT MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...WHICH COULD ENHANCE RAINFALL OVER
THAT REGION.
  
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      26/0300Z 28.0N 112.7W    30 KT
 12HR VT     26/1200Z 28.8N 112.9W    30 KT
 24HR VT     27/0000Z 29.4N 113.2W    25 KT
 36HR VT     27/1200Z 29.8N 113.4W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
 48HR VT     28/0000Z 29.9N 113.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 72HR VT     29/0000Z...REMNANT LOW
 
$$
FORECASTER STEWART/RHOME
 
NNNN


Quick Navigation Links:
Tropical Cyclone Forecasts  -  Tropical Marine Forecasts  -  Data Archive
Outreach  -  Prepare  -  About Cyclones  -  About NHC  -  Contact Us

NOAA/ National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida 33165-2149 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Credits
Information Quality
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Tuesday, 21-Apr-2009 12:09:40 UTC