Tropical Depression ELEVEN-E

ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP112008
800 AM PDT SAT AUG 23 2008
 
SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE TROPICAL WAVE SOUTHWEST OF MEXICO
HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED.  DESPITE STRONG UPPER WINDS...A STRONG
BURST OF CONVECTION HAS BEEN PERSISTING NEAR THE CENTER FOR THE
PAST SEVERAL HOURS AND CURVED BANDING FEATURES HAVE BECOME MORE
PROMINENT.  DVORAK SATELLITE ESTIMATES FROM TAFB ARE 2.0/30
KT...THUS THE ELEVENTH TROPICAL DEPRESSION OF THE SEASON IS BORN
IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC.  INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET TO 30 KT.  THE
MODERATE TO STRONG EASTERLY WIND SHEAR WHICH HAS BEEN AFFECTING
THIS SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY DIMINISH AND THAT SHOULD PROMOTE
SOME SLOW INTENSIFICATION.  HOWEVER...SINCE THE DYNAMICAL MODELS DO
NOT INTENSIFY THIS SYSTEM MUCH...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL BE
LOWER THAN THE SHIPS MODEL...WHICH BRINGS THIS SYSTEM TO 50 KT. IN
ABOUT 72 HR...A COMBINATION OF COOLER WATERS AND MORE STABLE AIR
SHOULD BEGIN TO WEAKEN THE SYSTEM.
 
THE BEST GUESS OF INITIAL MOTION IS 305/10.  A MOTION TOWARD THE
NORTHWEST SEEMS LIKELY FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WHILE THE
DEPRESSION IS STEERED AROUND THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF A MID-
TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE OVER MEXICO.  THE SYSTEM COULD TURN MORE TO THE
NORTH IN A FEW DAYS DUE TO A BREAK IN THE RIDGE.  THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST LIES JUST WEST OF THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS.
HOWEVER...IT IS WORTH NOTING THAT THE HWRF/GFDL SHOW A WEAKER RIDGE
THAN OTHER MODELS...AND SUGGEST MORE OF A DIRECT IMPACT TO BAJA
CALIFORNIA. IF THE FORECAST SHIFTS MUCH TO EAST LATER TODAY...
TROPICAL STORM WATCHES COULD BE REQUIRED FOR BAJA CALIFORNIA.
  
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      23/1500Z 18.4N 107.6W    30 KT
 12HR VT     24/0000Z 19.5N 108.7W    35 KT
 24HR VT     24/1200Z 20.8N 109.9W    35 KT
 36HR VT     25/0000Z 21.8N 110.8W    40 KT
 48HR VT     25/1200Z 23.5N 112.4W    40 KT
 72HR VT     26/1200Z 26.5N 114.5W    35 KT
 96HR VT     27/1200Z 28.5N 114.5W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT     28/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
 
NNNN