ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 1 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112008 800 AM PDT SAT AUG 23 2008 SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE TROPICAL WAVE SOUTHWEST OF MEXICO HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED. DESPITE STRONG UPPER WINDS...A STRONG BURST OF CONVECTION HAS BEEN PERSISTING NEAR THE CENTER FOR THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS AND CURVED BANDING FEATURES HAVE BECOME MORE PROMINENT. DVORAK SATELLITE ESTIMATES FROM TAFB ARE 2.0/30 KT...THUS THE ELEVENTH TROPICAL DEPRESSION OF THE SEASON IS BORN IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC. INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET TO 30 KT. THE MODERATE TO STRONG EASTERLY WIND SHEAR WHICH HAS BEEN AFFECTING THIS SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY DIMINISH AND THAT SHOULD PROMOTE SOME SLOW INTENSIFICATION. HOWEVER...SINCE THE DYNAMICAL MODELS DO NOT INTENSIFY THIS SYSTEM MUCH...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL BE LOWER THAN THE SHIPS MODEL...WHICH BRINGS THIS SYSTEM TO 50 KT. IN ABOUT 72 HR...A COMBINATION OF COOLER WATERS AND MORE STABLE AIR SHOULD BEGIN TO WEAKEN THE SYSTEM. THE BEST GUESS OF INITIAL MOTION IS 305/10. A MOTION TOWARD THE NORTHWEST SEEMS LIKELY FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WHILE THE DEPRESSION IS STEERED AROUND THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF A MID- TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE OVER MEXICO. THE SYSTEM COULD TURN MORE TO THE NORTH IN A FEW DAYS DUE TO A BREAK IN THE RIDGE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST LIES JUST WEST OF THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS. HOWEVER...IT IS WORTH NOTING THAT THE HWRF/GFDL SHOW A WEAKER RIDGE THAN OTHER MODELS...AND SUGGEST MORE OF A DIRECT IMPACT TO BAJA CALIFORNIA. IF THE FORECAST SHIFTS MUCH TO EAST LATER TODAY... TROPICAL STORM WATCHES COULD BE REQUIRED FOR BAJA CALIFORNIA. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 23/1500Z 18.4N 107.6W 30 KT 12HR VT 24/0000Z 19.5N 108.7W 35 KT 24HR VT 24/1200Z 20.8N 109.9W 35 KT 36HR VT 25/0000Z 21.8N 110.8W 40 KT 48HR VT 25/1200Z 23.5N 112.4W 40 KT 72HR VT 26/1200Z 26.5N 114.5W 35 KT 96HR VT 27/1200Z 28.5N 114.5W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 120HR VT 28/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER BLAKE NNNN
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Page last modified: Tuesday, 21-Apr-2009 12:09:40 UTC