Tropical Depression ISELLE
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TROPICAL DEPRESSION ISELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 12
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102008
200 AM PDT SAT AUG 16 2008
ALL OF THE DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH ISELLE HAS DISSIPATED AND
THE CYCLONE HAS BEEN REDUCED TO A LOW-LEVEL SWIRL OF LOW CLOUDS
WITH SOME LEFTOVER MID-LEVEL DEBRIS CLOUDS. WITH VERTICAL SHEAR
EXPECTED TO REMAIN STRONG...ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS ANTICIPATED AS
THE CONVECTIONLESS CIRCULATION GRADUALLY SPINS DOWN. IN
FACT...ISELLE APPEARS TO BE WELL ON ITS WAY TO REMNANT LOW
STATUS...PERHAPS LATER TODAY.
THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION IS NOW MOVING WITH THE SHALLOW STEERING
RESULTING IN A NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION OR 340/04. A GRADUAL
TURN TOWARD THE WEST OR WEST-SOUTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT
FEW DAYS AS THE REMNANTS OF ISELLE ENCOUNTER EASTERLY FLOW SOUTH
OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. TRACK GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED MORE TOWARD
THE NORTH AND THE NEW TRACK FORECAST FOLLOWS SUIT.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 16/0900Z 18.7N 111.6W 30 KT
12HR VT 16/1800Z 19.1N 111.9W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
24HR VT 17/0600Z 19.6N 112.6W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
36HR VT 17/1800Z 20.0N 113.5W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
48HR VT 18/0600Z 20.3N 114.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
72HR VT 19/0600Z 20.5N 116.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
96HR VT 20/0600Z 20.5N 117.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT 21/0600Z 20.0N 119.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
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