Skip Navigation Links weather.gov   
NOAA logo - Click to go to the NOAA homepage National Weather Service   NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS homepage
National Hurricane Center
Local forecast by
"City, St" or "ZIP"

 
Alternate Formats
   Text     |   Mobile
   Email   |   RSS XML/RSS logo
   About Alternates
Cyclone Forecasts
   Latest Advisory
   Past Advisories
   Audio/Podcasts
   About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
   Atlantic & E Pacific
   Gridded Marine
   About Marine
Tools & Data
   Satellite | Radar
   Analysis Tools
   Aircraft Recon
   GIS Datasets
   Data Archive
Development
   Experimental
   Research
   Forecast Accuracy
Outreach & Education
   Prepare
   Storm Surge
   About Cyclones
   Cyclone Names
   Wind Scale
   Most Extreme
   Forecast Models
   Breakpoints
   Resources
   Glossary | Acronyms
   Frequent Questions
Our Organization
   About NHC
   Mission & Vision
   Staff | Q&A
   Visitors | Virtual Tour
   Library Branch
   NCEP | Newsletter
Contact Us
   Comments
Follow the National Hurricane Center on Facebook Follow the National Hurricane Center on Twitter
Subscribe the National Hurricane Center on YouTube Read the National Hurricane Center Inside the Eye blog on WordPress
FirstGov.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.
 
 

Tropical Depression NINE-E


ZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP092008
200 PM PDT WED AUG 06 2008
 
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WELL SOUTHWEST OF THE PACIFIC COAST OF
MEXICO HAS STEADILY BEEN GAINING ORGANIZATION TODAY...WITH A
GRADUAL INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE COVERAGE AND A WELL-DEFINED SURFACE
CIRCULATION EVIDENT IN VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY.  DVORAK
CLASSIFICATIONS AT 18Z FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB WERE T2.0...AND THE
SYSTEM IS DESIGNATED A TROPICAL DEPRESSION WITH ESTIMATED MAXIMUM
WINDS OF 30 KT.

AS IS USUALLY THE CASE FOR EASTERN PACIFIC TROPICAL CYCLONES...THE
FORWARD MOTION IS BEING DICTATED BY A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER
MEXICO...AND THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 290/14.  WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY DEPICTS A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH JUST OFF THE COAST OF
CALIFORNIA.  AS A RESULT...THE FORWARD SPEED OF THE DEPRESSION IS
FORECAST TO SLOW DOWN A LITTLE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT
APPROACHES A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE.  BEYOND 48 HOURS...THE
DYNAMICAL MODELS FORECAST THE WEST COAST TROUGH TO LIFT OUT AND
ALLOW THE RIDGE TO BUILD WESTWARD A LITTLE OVER THE EASTERN
PACIFIC...KEEPING THE TROPICAL CYCLONE ON A GENERAL
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD HEADING.  ONCE THE CYCLONE REACHES COOLER WATERS
IN ABOUT THREE DAYS AND WEAKENS...IT SHOULD BECOME A MORE SHALLOW
SYSTEM AND TURN WESTWARD WITH THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW.  MODEL GUIDANCE
IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS GENERAL SCENARIO...AND THE OFFICIAL
TRACK FORECAST IS JUST NORTH OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS.

THE DEPRESSION IS CURRENTLY OVER SEA-SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF ABOUT
28 CELSIUS...AND THAT WILL REMAIN THE CASE FOR ABOUT THE NEXT 24
HOURS ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK...FOLLOWED BY STEADILY COOLER
WATERS.  MODERATE EASTERLY WIND SHEAR IS CURRENTLY AFFECTING THE
CYCLONE...BUT MODELS FORECAST THE SHEAR TO WEAKEN A LITTLE AND
REMAIN WEAK THROUGHOUT THE FIVE-DAY FORECAST PERIOD.  AS A RESULT
OF THESE CONDITIONS...A FAIRLY TYPICAL RISE AND FALL IN THE
INTENSITY FOR AN EASTERN PACIFIC CYCLONE IS FORECAST.  THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST CALLS FOR A PEAK CLOSE TO HURRICANE INTENSITY IN A COUPLE
OF DAYS...FOLLOWED BY A RAPID DECLINE OVER COOL WATERS...IN GENERAL
AGREEMENT WITH BUT SLIGHTLY ABOVE THE SHIPS GUIDANCE.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      06/2100Z 12.9N 111.8W    30 KT
 12HR VT     07/0600Z 13.6N 113.8W    40 KT
 24HR VT     07/1800Z 14.5N 116.1W    45 KT
 36HR VT     08/0600Z 15.2N 118.1W    55 KT
 48HR VT     08/1800Z 16.0N 120.2W    60 KT
 72HR VT     09/1800Z 17.5N 124.5W    50 KT
 96HR VT     10/1800Z 18.0N 128.5W    30 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT     11/1800Z 18.0N 132.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 
$$
FORECASTER KNABB
 
NNNN


Quick Navigation Links:
Tropical Cyclone Forecasts  -  Tropical Marine Forecasts  -  Data Archive
Outreach  -  Prepare  -  About Cyclones  -  About NHC  -  Contact Us

NOAA/ National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida 33165 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Credits
Information Quality
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Tuesday, 21-Apr-2009 12:09:38 UTC