Skip Navigation Links weather.gov   
NOAA logo - Click to go to the NOAA homepage National Weather Service   NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS homepage
National Hurricane Center
Local forecast by
"City, St" or "ZIP"

 
Alternate Formats
   Text     |   Mobile
   Email   |   RSS XML/RSS logo
   About Alternates
Cyclone Forecasts
   Latest Advisory
   Past Advisories
   Audio/Podcasts
   About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
   Atlantic & E Pacific
   Gridded Marine
   About Marine
Tools & Data
   Satellite | Radar
   Analysis Tools
   Aircraft Recon
   GIS Datasets
   Data Archive
Development
   Experimental
   Research
   Forecast Accuracy
Outreach & Education
   Prepare
   Storm Surge
   About Cyclones
   Cyclone Names
   Wind Scale
   Most Extreme
   Forecast Models
   Breakpoints
   Resources
   Glossary | Acronyms
   Frequent Questions
Our Organization
   About NHC
   Mission & Vision
   Staff | Q&A
   Visitors | Virtual Tour
   Library Branch
   NCEP | Newsletter
Contact Us
   Comments
Follow the National Hurricane Center on Facebook Follow the National Hurricane Center on Twitter
Subscribe the National Hurricane Center on YouTube Read the National Hurricane Center Inside the Eye blog on WordPress
FirstGov.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.
 
 

Hurricane FAUSTO


ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
HURRICANE FAUSTO DISCUSSION NUMBER  22
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP072008
800 AM PDT MON JUL 21 2008
 
HURRICANE FAUSTO'S MID TO UPPER LEVEL CENTER IS BECOMING DECOUPLED
FROM THE SURFACE CIRCULATION.  WHILE GEOSTATIONARY INFRARED
SATELLITE PICTURES SUGGESTED A CONTINUED TRACK TOWARD THE NORTHWEST
OVERNIGHT...MICROWAVE IMAGERY FROM AMSR AND AMSU INSTEAD SHOW THAT
THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS SUBSTANTIALLY SOUTHWEST OF THE 06Z AND 12Z
GEOSTATIONARY-BASED POSITION ESTIMATES.  THIS DECOUPLING ALSO
INDICATES THAT THE HURRICANE MAY NOT BE AS STRONG AS SUGGESTED BY
THE DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB.  THE AFOREMENTIONED AMSU
PASS AT 0936Z GAVE AN INTENSITY ESTIMATE FROM CIMSS OF 67
KT...WHICH IS SUBSTANTIALLY WEAKER THAN EARLIER AMSU ANALYSES.  THE
CURRENT INTENSITY IS ESTIMATED TO BE 70 KT...BUT THIS MAY BE
SLIGHTLY ON THE HIGH SIDE.

FAUSTO IS MOVING AT AN UNCERTAIN 300 DEGREES AT 12 KT.  THE CYCLONE
IS SITUATED SOUTHWEST OF A DEEP-LAYERED RIDGE OVER NORTHERN MEXICO
AND SOUTHEAST OF A VIGOROUS CUTOFF LOW WEST OF CALIFORNIA.  GIVEN
THE DECOUPLING OF THE LOW AND MID-LEVEL CIRCULATIONS THAT APPEARS
TO BE OCCURRING...FAUSTO SHOULD NO LONGER FEEL THE INFLUENCE OF THE
MID AND UPPER LEVEL FEATURES AND INSTEAD BE INCREASINGLY ADVECTED
ALONG BY THE LOWER LEVEL FLOW.  THE FORECAST IS A CONSENSUS OF THE
GFDL...UKMET...NOGAPS...AND ECMWF MODELS AND IS SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.  

THE DECOUPLING MAY BE DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF INCREASINGLY HOSTILE
THERMODYNAMICS AND MODERATE SOUTHERLY SHEAR IMPACTING THE CYCLONE. 
CONTINUED WEAKENING IS ANTICIPATED AS FAUSTO SHOULD MOVE OVER EVEN
COLDER WATERS WITHIN THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.  THE INTENSITY
FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE LGEM...SHIPS...HWRF...AND GFDL
MODELS...BUT IS SUBSTANTIALLY LOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.
  
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      21/1500Z 20.4N 116.8W    70 KT
 12HR VT     22/0000Z 21.1N 118.4W    55 KT
 24HR VT     22/1200Z 21.8N 120.5W    45 KT
 36HR VT     23/0000Z 22.2N 122.4W    35 KT
 48HR VT     23/1200Z 22.6N 123.9W    30 KT
 72HR VT     24/1200Z 23.5N 127.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 96HR VT     25/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER LANDSEA/KNABB
 
NNNN


Quick Navigation Links:
Tropical Cyclone Forecasts  -  Tropical Marine Forecasts  -  Data Archive
Outreach  -  Prepare  -  About Cyclones  -  About NHC  -  Contact Us

NOAA/ National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida 33165 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Credits
Information Quality
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Tuesday, 21-Apr-2009 12:09:36 UTC