Skip Navigation Links weather.gov   
NOAA logo - Click to go to the NOAA homepage National Weather Service   NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS homepage
National Hurricane Center
Local forecast by
"City, St" or "ZIP"

 
Alternate Formats
   Text     |   Mobile
   Email   |   RSS XML/RSS logo
   About Alternates
Cyclone Forecasts
   Latest Advisory
   Past Advisories
   Audio/Podcasts
   About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
   Atlantic & E Pacific
   Gridded Marine
   About Marine
Tools & Data
   Satellite | Radar
   Analysis Tools
   Aircraft Recon
   GIS Datasets
   Data Archive
Development
   Experimental
   Research
   Forecast Accuracy
Outreach & Education
   Prepare
   Storm Surge
   About Cyclones
   Cyclone Names
   Wind Scale
   Most Extreme
   Forecast Models
   Breakpoints
   Resources
   Glossary | Acronyms
   Frequent Questions
Our Organization
   About NHC
   Mission & Vision
   Staff | Q&A
   Visitors | Virtual Tour
   Library Branch
   NCEP | Newsletter
Contact Us
   Comments
Follow the National Hurricane Cent
er on Facebook Follow the National Hurricane Center on Twitter
FirstGov.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.
 
 

Hurricane FAUSTO


ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
HURRICANE FAUSTO DISCUSSION NUMBER  12
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP072008
800 PM PDT FRI JUL 18 2008
 
ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY AND A 0004Z SSMIS OVERPASS DEPICT A SMALL
BANDING EYE FEATURE BENEATH A SMALL CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST...AND A
MORE INTENSE RAIN BAND WITH -80C COLD CLOUD TOPS OVER THE EAST
QUADRANT. BASED ON AN IMPROVING CONVECTIVE INNER CORE AND A BLEND
OF THE SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
INCREASED TO 70 KT.  A WEAK WIND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT AND WARM WATERS
SHOULD SUPPORT STRENGTHENING OVER THE NEXT 2 TO 3 DAYS...WITH A
PEAK INTENSITY FORECAST OF 85 KT...WHICH IS A COMPROMISE OF THE
SHIPS AND THE GFDL.  THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD...A
GRADUAL WEAKENING SHOULD OCCUR ONCE THE CYCLONE BEGINS TO TRAVERSE
OVER COOLER WATERS.
 
INITIAL ESTIMATED MOTION IS 290/8...WITHIN A DEVELOPING WEAKNESS IN
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CREATED BY A MID-LEVEL TROUGH MOVING TOWARD
BAJA CALIFORNIA.  DYNAMICAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE MID- LEVEL
RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST OVER MEXICO WILL BUILD TO THE NORTH OF FAUSTO
IN 48 TO 72 HOURS...AT WHICH TIME THE FORWARD MOTION SHOULD INCREASE
A LITTLE.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS BASED ON A MODEL CONSENSUS
THROUGH DAY 3...THEN IS NUDGED TOWARD THE GFDL AND THE HWRF WHICH
INDICATE A STRONGER TROPICAL CYCLONE.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      19/0300Z 14.3N 109.0W    70 KT
 12HR VT     19/1200Z 14.8N 110.1W    80 KT
 24HR VT     20/0000Z 15.6N 111.3W    85 KT
 36HR VT     20/1200Z 16.7N 113.0W    80 KT
 48HR VT     21/0000Z 17.8N 114.9W    70 KT
 72HR VT     22/0000Z 19.7N 119.1W    55 KT
 96HR VT     23/0000Z 21.0N 123.5W    35 KT
120HR VT     24/0000Z 22.5N 127.5W    30 KT
 
$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS/FRANKLIN
 
NNNN


Quick Navigation Links:
Tropical Cyclone Forecasts  -  Tropical Marine Forecasts  -  Data Archive
Outreach  -  Prepare  -  About Cyclones  -  About NHC  -  Contact Us

NOAA/ National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida 33165-2149 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Credits
Information Quality
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Tuesday, 21-Apr-2009 12:09:36 UTC