Hurricane FAUSTO

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HURRICANE FAUSTO DISCUSSION NUMBER  11
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP072008
200 PM PDT FRI JUL 18 2008
 
FAUSTO IS EXHIBITING VERY WELL-DEFINED BANDING FEATURES...AND
RECENTLY THE BEGINNINGS OF AN EYE HAVE BECOME DISCERNIBLE IN
GEOSTATIONARY VISIBLE IMAGERY.  SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE DVORAK
INTENSITY ESTIMATES REMAIN 65 KT...AND SO DOES THE ADVISORY
INTENSITY...BUT THERE IS NO OBVIOUS REASON WHY THE HURRICANE WILL
NOT STRENGTHEN SOME.  VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS NOT FORECAST BY THE
MODELS TO BE AN INHIBITING FACTOR...SO THE WARMTH OF THE WATERS
ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY DRIVER.  SEA-SURFACE
TEMPERATURES BENEATH THE HURRICANE ARE CURRENTLY ABOUT 28 CELSIUS
AND WILL GRADUALLY COOL FROM THIS POINT FORWARD...BUT ONLY AT ABOUT
ONE DEGREE CELSIUS PER DAY...SO THE WATERS ARE WARM ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT INTENSIFICATION FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  THE SHIPS
MODEL PEAKS AT 75 KT WHILE GFDL REACHES 84 KT...AND THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST LEANS TOWARD THE HIGHER END OF THAT RANGE.  STEADY
WEAKENING SHOULD OCCUR DURING THE 3-5 DAY TIME FRAME ONCE FAUSTO
PASSES OVER THE SST GRADIENT.

THE FORWARD MOTION HAS SLOWED A LITTLE AND THE INITIAL MOTION
ESTIMATE IS 290/9...AS FAUSTO HEADS TOWARD A SLOWLY DEVELOPING
WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.  THE RIDGE WILL PROBABLY BECOME
REESTABLISHED IN ABOUT THREE DAYS...SO OVERALL ONLY SUBTLE CHANGES
IN THE HEADING AND FORWARD SPEED ARE FORECAST BY THE DYNAMICAL
MODELS THROUGHOUT THE FIVE-DAY PERIOD.  THERE IS GENERALLY GOOD
AGREEMENT AMONGST THE MODELS...EXCEPT AT THE VERY END WHEN THEY
DISAGREE ON IF OR WHEN FAUSTO WILL TURN WEST.  THE NEW OFFICIAL
TRACK...LIKE THE PREVIOUS ONE...RELIES ON THE GFDL AND HWRF THAT
FORECAST A DEEPER SYSTEM THAT SHOULD CONTINUE
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD...RATHER THAN A WEAKER SYSTEM THAT TURNS WEST
SOONER AS SHOWN BY MODELS SUCH AS THE GFS.  THE NEW TRACK IS ALSO
CLOSE TO THE CONSENSUS.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      18/2100Z 14.1N 108.4W    65 KT
 12HR VT     19/0600Z 14.5N 109.5W    75 KT
 24HR VT     19/1800Z 15.3N 110.9W    85 KT
 36HR VT     20/0600Z 16.2N 112.4W    85 KT
 48HR VT     20/1800Z 17.3N 114.4W    75 KT
 72HR VT     21/1800Z 19.5N 118.5W    60 KT
 96HR VT     22/1800Z 21.0N 123.0W    40 KT
120HR VT     23/1800Z 22.5N 127.5W    30 KT
 
$$
FORECASTER KNABB
 
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