Tropical Storm FAUSTO

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TROPICAL STORM FAUSTO DISCUSSION NUMBER   7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP072008
200 PM PDT THU JUL 17 2008
 
FAUSTO HAS EXHIBITING A SOMEWHAT UNUSUAL APPEARANCE TODAY...WITH AN
EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CENTER RESIDING WITHIN A WIDE BAND OF DEEP
CONVECTION AT LARGE RADIUS.  DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES AT 18Z WERE
55 KT...BUT THE LACK OF CONVECTION VERY NEAR THE CENTER LEADS ME TO
KEEP THE INTENSITY AT 50 KT FOR NOW.  THE CYCLONE APPEARS POISED TO
STRENGTHEN...ALTHOUGH HOW FAST IT CAN DO THAT SEEMS TO DEPEND ON
HOW LONG IT TAKES FOR CONVECTION TO FIRE NEAR THE CENTER SO THE
SYSTEM CAN CONSOLIDATE.  RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY HINTS AT
CONVECTION SLOWLY INCREASING NEAR THE CENTER...SO STEADY
STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST ALONG THE LINES OF THE SHIPS GUIDANCE. 
INTENSIFICATION COULD CONTINUE FOR ABOUT 72 HOURS UNTIL THE SYSTEM
REACHES COOLER WATERS...AFTER WHICH TIME GRADUAL WEAKENING IS
FORECAST.  THIS FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.

THE EXPOSED CENTER HAS MADE IT EASIER TO FIND THE CENTER...AND THE
SYSTEM HAS BEEN MOVING NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY TRACK OR
ABOUT 290/13.  NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE HEADING IS FORECAST
THROUGHOUT THE FIVE-DAY PERIOD...WITH ONLY A MODEST DECREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC
WEAKENS SLIGHTLY.  GUIDANCE IS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT AND THE
OFFICIAL TRACK IS QUITE CLOSE TO THE CONSENSUS AND THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      17/2100Z 12.8N 105.1W    50 KT
 12HR VT     18/0600Z 13.4N 106.9W    60 KT
 24HR VT     18/1800Z 13.9N 108.7W    65 KT
 36HR VT     19/0600Z 14.4N 110.4W    70 KT
 48HR VT     19/1800Z 15.1N 112.1W    75 KT
 72HR VT     20/1800Z 16.5N 115.5W    80 KT
 96HR VT     21/1800Z 18.0N 119.5W    65 KT
120HR VT     22/1800Z 19.5N 123.5W    55 KT
 
$$
FORECASTER KNABB
 
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