Skip Navigation Links weather.gov   
NOAA logo - Click to go to the NOAA homepage National Weather Service   NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS homepage
National Hurricane Center
Local forecast by
"City, St" or "ZIP"

 
Alternate Formats
   Text     |   Mobile
   Email   |   RSS XML/RSS logo
   About Alternates
Cyclone Forecasts
   Latest Advisory
   Past Advisories
   Audio/Podcasts
   About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
   Atlantic & E Pacific
   Gridded Marine
   About Marine
Tools & Data
   Satellite | Radar
   Analysis Tools
   Aircraft Recon
   GIS Datasets
   Data Archive
Development
   Experimental
   Research
   Forecast Accuracy
Outreach & Education
   Prepare
   Storm Surge
   About Cyclones
   Cyclone Names
   Wind Scale
   Most Extreme
   Forecast Models
   Breakpoints
   Resources
   Glossary | Acronyms
   Frequent Questions
Our Organization
   About NHC
   Mission & Vision
   Staff | Q&A
   Visitors | Virtual Tour
   Library Branch
   NCEP | Newsletter
Contact Us
   Comments
Follow the National Hurricane Center on Facebook Follow the National Hurricane Center on Twitter
Subscribe the National Hurricane Center on YouTube Read the National Hurricane Center Inside the Eye blog on WordPress
FirstGov.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.
 
 

Tropical Storm FAUSTO


ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM FAUSTO DISCUSSION NUMBER   7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP072008
200 PM PDT THU JUL 17 2008
 
FAUSTO HAS EXHIBITING A SOMEWHAT UNUSUAL APPEARANCE TODAY...WITH AN
EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CENTER RESIDING WITHIN A WIDE BAND OF DEEP
CONVECTION AT LARGE RADIUS.  DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES AT 18Z WERE
55 KT...BUT THE LACK OF CONVECTION VERY NEAR THE CENTER LEADS ME TO
KEEP THE INTENSITY AT 50 KT FOR NOW.  THE CYCLONE APPEARS POISED TO
STRENGTHEN...ALTHOUGH HOW FAST IT CAN DO THAT SEEMS TO DEPEND ON
HOW LONG IT TAKES FOR CONVECTION TO FIRE NEAR THE CENTER SO THE
SYSTEM CAN CONSOLIDATE.  RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY HINTS AT
CONVECTION SLOWLY INCREASING NEAR THE CENTER...SO STEADY
STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST ALONG THE LINES OF THE SHIPS GUIDANCE. 
INTENSIFICATION COULD CONTINUE FOR ABOUT 72 HOURS UNTIL THE SYSTEM
REACHES COOLER WATERS...AFTER WHICH TIME GRADUAL WEAKENING IS
FORECAST.  THIS FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.

THE EXPOSED CENTER HAS MADE IT EASIER TO FIND THE CENTER...AND THE
SYSTEM HAS BEEN MOVING NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY TRACK OR
ABOUT 290/13.  NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE HEADING IS FORECAST
THROUGHOUT THE FIVE-DAY PERIOD...WITH ONLY A MODEST DECREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC
WEAKENS SLIGHTLY.  GUIDANCE IS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT AND THE
OFFICIAL TRACK IS QUITE CLOSE TO THE CONSENSUS AND THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      17/2100Z 12.8N 105.1W    50 KT
 12HR VT     18/0600Z 13.4N 106.9W    60 KT
 24HR VT     18/1800Z 13.9N 108.7W    65 KT
 36HR VT     19/0600Z 14.4N 110.4W    70 KT
 48HR VT     19/1800Z 15.1N 112.1W    75 KT
 72HR VT     20/1800Z 16.5N 115.5W    80 KT
 96HR VT     21/1800Z 18.0N 119.5W    65 KT
120HR VT     22/1800Z 19.5N 123.5W    55 KT
 
$$
FORECASTER KNABB
 
NNNN


Quick Navigation Links:
Tropical Cyclone Forecasts  -  Tropical Marine Forecasts  -  Data Archive
Outreach  -  Prepare  -  About Cyclones  -  About NHC  -  Contact Us

NOAA/ National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida 33165 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Credits
Information Quality
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Tuesday, 21-Apr-2009 12:09:36 UTC