ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM FAUSTO DISCUSSION NUMBER 7 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072008 200 PM PDT THU JUL 17 2008 FAUSTO HAS EXHIBITING A SOMEWHAT UNUSUAL APPEARANCE TODAY...WITH AN EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CENTER RESIDING WITHIN A WIDE BAND OF DEEP CONVECTION AT LARGE RADIUS. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES AT 18Z WERE 55 KT...BUT THE LACK OF CONVECTION VERY NEAR THE CENTER LEADS ME TO KEEP THE INTENSITY AT 50 KT FOR NOW. THE CYCLONE APPEARS POISED TO STRENGTHEN...ALTHOUGH HOW FAST IT CAN DO THAT SEEMS TO DEPEND ON HOW LONG IT TAKES FOR CONVECTION TO FIRE NEAR THE CENTER SO THE SYSTEM CAN CONSOLIDATE. RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY HINTS AT CONVECTION SLOWLY INCREASING NEAR THE CENTER...SO STEADY STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST ALONG THE LINES OF THE SHIPS GUIDANCE. INTENSIFICATION COULD CONTINUE FOR ABOUT 72 HOURS UNTIL THE SYSTEM REACHES COOLER WATERS...AFTER WHICH TIME GRADUAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST. THIS FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. THE EXPOSED CENTER HAS MADE IT EASIER TO FIND THE CENTER...AND THE SYSTEM HAS BEEN MOVING NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY TRACK OR ABOUT 290/13. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE HEADING IS FORECAST THROUGHOUT THE FIVE-DAY PERIOD...WITH ONLY A MODEST DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC WEAKENS SLIGHTLY. GUIDANCE IS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT AND THE OFFICIAL TRACK IS QUITE CLOSE TO THE CONSENSUS AND THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 17/2100Z 12.8N 105.1W 50 KT 12HR VT 18/0600Z 13.4N 106.9W 60 KT 24HR VT 18/1800Z 13.9N 108.7W 65 KT 36HR VT 19/0600Z 14.4N 110.4W 70 KT 48HR VT 19/1800Z 15.1N 112.1W 75 KT 72HR VT 20/1800Z 16.5N 115.5W 80 KT 96HR VT 21/1800Z 18.0N 119.5W 65 KT 120HR VT 22/1800Z 19.5N 123.5W 55 KT $$ FORECASTER KNABB NNNN
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