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Tropical Storm ELIDA


ZCZC MIAPWSEP1 ALL                                                  
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM                                                  
TROPICAL STORM ELIDA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   5            
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP062008               
0300 UTC SUN JUL 13 2008                                            
                                                                    
AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ELIDA WAS LOCATED NEAR        
LATITUDE 14.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 101.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED   
WINDS NEAR 50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/HR.                              
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT  7 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
                                                                    
                                                                    
I.  MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE                
                                                                    
CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF 
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES 
AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.              
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT.  X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS 
THAN 1 PERCENT.                                                     
                                                                    
                                                                    
      - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - -      
                                                                    
VALID TIME   12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI
FORECAST HOUR   12      24      36      48      72      96     120  
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
DISSIPATED       X       X       1       1       3       8      14
TROP DEPRESSION  1       2       5       9      21      31      41
TROPICAL STORM  89      61      61      60      60      54      43
HURRICANE       10      37      33      31      16       7       2
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
HUR CAT 1        9      33      28      25      13       7       2
HUR CAT 2        1       3       4       4       3       X       X
HUR CAT 3        X       1       1       2       X       X       X
HUR CAT 4        X       X       X       X       X       X       X
HUR CAT 5        X       X       X       X       X       X       X
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
FCST MAX WIND   55KT    65KT    65KT    65KT    60KT    55KT    50KT
                                                                    
                                                                    
II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS             
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...                                   
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...                                   
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...                                   
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE               
    IP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)          
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        00Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE         
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                                  
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED  LOCATIONS - - - -  
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
CABO SAN LUCAS 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)
 
SAN BLAS       34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
P VALLARTA     34  X   1( 1)   2( 3)   1( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
BARRA NAVIDAD  34  X   2( 2)   3( 5)   2( 7)   1( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)
 
MANZANILLO     34  1   2( 3)   2( 5)   1( 6)   1( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
 
L CARDENAS     34  1   2( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
ZIHUATANEJO    34  1   1( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
ISLA SOCORRO   34  X   X( X)   2( 2)  11(13)  18(31)   4(35)   X(35)
ISLA SOCORRO   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   6( 8)   2(10)   X(10)
ISLA SOCORRO   64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)
 
ISLA CLARION   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   7( 8)  10(18)   3(21)
ISLA CLARION   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   X( 4)
ISLA CLARION   64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)
 
ISLAS MARIAS   34  X   1( 1)   X( 1)   2( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER ROBERTS/KNABB                                                  
                                                                    
                                                                    
NNNN                                                                


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Page last modified: Tuesday, 21-Apr-2009 12:09:34 UTC