Tropical Storm ELIDA
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TROPICAL STORM ELIDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 29
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062008
800 PM PDT FRI JUL 18 2008
AN ASCAT OVERPASS RETRIEVED THIS AFTERNOON INDICATED THAT ELIDA
HAS NOT YET WEAKENED TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION. THERE REMAINS A SMALL
AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION JUST TO THE EAST OF THE PARTLY EXPOSED
CIRCULATION THAT MAY STILL CONTAIN 35 KT WINDS. CONSEQUENTLY...THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 35 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. THE CYCLONE
IS MOVING OVER COOLER WATERS...WHICH ULTIMATELY SHOULD REDUCE ELIDA
TO A REMNANT LOW IN 24 HOURS...OR LESS. THIS WEAKENING IS
REFLECTED IN THE SHIPS AND LGEM...AND IS THE BASIS FOR
THE INTENSITY FORECAST.
THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT A CONSISTENT 280/12...WITHIN THE
LOW- TO MID-LAYER EASTERLY FLOW TO THE SOUTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR THIS PERSISTENT WESTWARD
MOTION TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD...AS INDICATED BY A CONSENSUS
OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 19/0300Z 18.2N 129.9W 35 KT
12HR VT 19/1200Z 18.1N 131.6W 30 KT
24HR VT 20/0000Z 17.9N 134.1W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
36HR VT 20/1200Z 17.7N 136.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
48HR VT 21/0000Z 17.5N 139.2W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
72HR VT 22/0000Z 17.0N 145.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
96HR VT 23/0000Z 17.0N 151.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT 24/0000Z...DISSIPATED
$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS/FRANKLIN
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