Tropical Depression FIVE-E

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TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP052008
800 AM PDT SUN JUL 06 2008

ALTHOUGH IT HAS BEEN PRODUCING VERY COLD CLOUD TOPS...THE
DEPRESSION'S CLOUD PATTERN IS RATHER AMORPHOUS WITH LITTLE EVIDENCE
OF BANDING FEATURES.  THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS SET AT 30 KT IN
ACCORDANCE WITH THE LATEST DVORAK ESTIMATES HOWEVER THERE IS A
GREATER THAN USUAL UNCERTAINTY WITH THE INTENSITY.  DYNAMICAL
GUIDANCE INDICATES STRONG EASTERLY SHEAR OVER THE SYSTEM SO ONLY
SLOW STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST.  THE OFFICIAL WIND SPEED PREDICTION
IS JUST BELOW THE SHIPS GUIDANCE.  OF COURSE...THE FUTURE STRENGTH
OF THE SYSTEM IS HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON HOW MUCH IT INTERACTS WITH
LAND.  ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CYCLONE WILL BE MOVING OVER
COOLER WATERS BY DAYS 4-5 SO WEAKENING IS LIKELY BY THAT TIME. 

THERE IS ALSO GREAT UNCERTAINTY IN THE CENTER POSITION...WHICH IS
ESTIMATED TO BE ROUGHLY NEAR THE COLDEST CLOUD TOPS.  THIS RESULTS
IN AN INITIAL MOTION OF 310/9.  THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH
AND NORTHEAST OF THE DEPRESSION IS QUITE WEAK AND SOME OF THE TRACK
MODEL GUIDANCE MOVES THE CENTER ASHORE WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST...LIKE THE PREVIOUS ONE...TAKES
THE CYCLONE CLOSE TO BUT NOT QUITE OVER THE COASTLINE.  

GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTIES IN THE CURRENT AND FORECAST LOCATION AND
INTENSITY...NO CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE WATCHES AND WARNINGS
ALONG THE COAST AT THIS TIME.

REGARDLESS OF WHETHER THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL...THE PRIMARY THREAT
FROM THIS SYSTEM IS HEAVY PRECIPITATION AND THE ASSOCIATED FLOODS
AND MUD SLIDES OVER THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF MEXICO.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      06/1500Z 16.3N 102.8W    30 KT
 12HR VT     07/0000Z 17.0N 103.4W    35 KT
 24HR VT     07/1200Z 17.9N 104.2W    40 KT
 36HR VT     08/0000Z 18.9N 105.1W    45 KT
 48HR VT     08/1200Z 19.9N 106.1W    45 KT
 72HR VT     09/1200Z 21.5N 108.5W    45 KT
 96HR VT     10/1200Z 22.5N 112.0W    35 KT
120HR VT     11/1200Z 22.5N 115.0W    30 KT
 
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
 
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