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Tropical Storm CRISTINA


ZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM CRISTINA DISCUSSION NUMBER   5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP032008
200 PM PDT SAT JUN 28 2008
 
MICROWAVE PASSES AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE A WELL
DEVELOPED BANDING FEATURE WITH -80C CLOUD TOPS NEAR THE SURFACE
CIRCULATION CENTER.  BASED ON THE OVERALL CLOUD PATTERN IMPROVEMENT
AND BELIEVABLE 40 KT WINDS RETRIEVED FROM A 1402Z QUIKSCAT
OVERPASS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BUMPED UP TO 40 KT.  THE
INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE CALLING FOR
LITTLE CHANGE WITH THE NEXT 36 TO 48 HOURS.  THROUGH THE REMAINING
PORTION OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...COOLER WATER AND A MORE STABLE
THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN CRISTINA...AND
ULTIMATELY...TO A REMNANT LOW IN AROUND 3 DAYS.
 
INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 280/7...SLIGHTLY TO THE LEFT OF THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY. A FEW OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS...GFS...UKM AND
ECMWF...ARE INDICATING A MORE WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION WITH TIME. 
APPARENTLY...THIS IS DUE TO A WEAKER CYCLONE REFLECTION IN THE
FIELDS AND AN OBVIOUS INTERACTION WITH THE ITCZ.  CONSEQUENTLY...THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS JUST TO THE NORTH OF THESE MODELS AND IS
NUDGED CLOSELY TO A BLEND OF THE HWRF AND GFDL.  THESE MODELS PAINT
A MORE ACCURATE PICTURE OF THE CURRENT STRUCTURE AND INTENSITY OF
THE SYSTEM.  
 
WIND RADII HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED BASED ON THE QUIKSCAT OVERPASS. 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      28/2100Z 14.6N 125.4W    40 KT
 12HR VT     29/0600Z 14.7N 126.6W    40 KT
 24HR VT     29/1800Z 14.9N 128.4W    40 KT
 36HR VT     30/0600Z 15.0N 130.3W    35 KT
 48HR VT     30/1800Z 15.0N 132.4W    30 KT
 72HR VT     01/1800Z 15.0N 137.0W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
 96HR VT     02/1800Z 15.0N 141.0W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT     03/1800Z 15.0N 145.0W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
 
$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS/BEVEN
 
NNNN


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Page last modified: Tuesday, 21-Apr-2009 12:09:31 UTC