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Tropical Depression PALOMA


ZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL DEPRESSION PALOMA DISCUSSION NUMBER  18
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL172008
400 PM EST SUN NOV 09 2008
 
DEEP CONVECTION HAS BEEN ABSENT FROM PALOMA SINCE ABOUT 10Z THIS
MORNING...THOUGH THE HOLGUIN RADAR IN CUBA DOES SHOW SOME MODEST BUT
DECREASING RAINFALL IN BANDS EAST OF THE CENTER.  THE INTENSITY
ESTIMATE IS SOMEWHAT OF AN EDUCATED GUESS FOR THIS OVERLAND
CYCLONE...GIVEN THE LACK OF RECONNAISSANCE OBSERVATIONS AND DVORAK
ANALYSES.  HOWEVER GIVEN THE FACT THAT PALOMA HAS BEEN WITHOUT DEEP
CONVECTION AND OVER LAND ALL DAY IT SEEMS CERTAIN THAT THE
CIRCULATION HAS SPUN DOWN SIGNIFICANTLY SINCE EARLY TODAY.
AVAILABLE CUBAN SURFACE OBSERVING STATIONS AND CONTINUITY SUGGEST
THAT PALOMA HAS WEAKENED TO A 30 KT TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

PALOMA HAS NEARLY COME TO A HALT THIS AFTERNOON WITH INITIAL MOTION
OF ABOUT 360 DEGREES AT 1 KT.  THE CYCLONE SHOULD BE STEERED BY THE
LOW-LEVEL FLOW IN THE ATMOSPHERE AND THE FORECAST TRACK IS THUS
CLOSEST TO BAM SHALLOW...AND SLIGHTLY WEST OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.

THE COMBINATION OF STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR...STAYING OVER LAND FOR
ALMOST A DAY...AND DRY STABLE AIR BEING ADVECTED INTO THE
CIRCULATION FROM AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT IS LIKELY LEADING TO
PALOMA'S IMMINENT DEMISE.  UNLESS DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE
CYCLONE'S CENTER IS RE-INITIATED SOON...PALOMA MAY BE DECLARED A
REMNANT LOW TONIGHT OR EARLY MONDAY. 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      09/2100Z 21.2N  78.0W    30 KT
 12HR VT     10/0600Z 21.6N  78.1W    30 KT...REMNANT LOW...INLAND
 24HR VT     10/1800Z 22.2N  78.2W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
 36HR VT     11/0600Z 22.7N  78.3W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 48HR VT     11/1800Z 23.0N  78.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 72HR VT     12/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER LANDSEA/PASCH
 
NNNN



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Page last modified: Tuesday, 21-Apr-2009 12:09:28 UTC