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Hurricane PALOMA


ZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
HURRICANE PALOMA DISCUSSION NUMBER  10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL172008
1000 PM EST FRI NOV 07 2008
 
PALOMA HAS CONTINUED TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY...HAVING STRENGTHENED 15
KT IN THE PAST 6 HOURS AND 70 KT IN THE PAST 48 HOURS. THE LAST AIR
FORCE RECON PASS THROUGH THE EYE INDICATED A SEA-LEVEL PRESSURE OF
964 MB...700 MB PEAK FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 107 KT...AND DROPSONDE
MEASUREMENT EQUATING TO A 101 KT SURFACE WIND...AND A SFMR-MEASURED
SURFACE WIND OF 101 KT IN THE SAME GENERAL AREA. THESE DATA EASILY
SUPPORT MAKING PALOMA A CATEGORY 3 MAJOR HURRICANE. THE EYE HAS
CLEARED OUT AND HAS BECOME WELL-DEFINED IN SATELLITE IMAGERY AND IS
ALSO BEGINNING TO SHOW UP IN CUBAN RADAR IMAGERY.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 045/06 KT. PALOMA HAS FINALLY MADE
THE LONG ADVERTISED TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AROUND THE
NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED
ACROSS JAMAICA AND SOUTHERN HISPANIOLA. AS PALOMA COMES UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF DEEP-LAYER MID-LATITUDE WESTERLY FLOW CURRENTLY
PUSHING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO AND FLORIDA...A
CONTINUED NORTHEAST OR EAST-NORTHEASTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED FOR
THE NEXT 48 TO 72 HOURS. HOWEVER...THE FORECAST TRACK OUT TO THAT
TIME AND BEYOND IS ANYTHING BUT STRAIGHTFORWARD. AS HAS BEEN THE
CASE FOR THE PAST 36 HOURS...THERE REMAINS A BIFURCATION IN THE NHC
MODEL SUITE WITH THE UKMET...ECMWF...AND NOGAPS MODELS RAPIDLY
WEAKENING PALOMA AND TURNING IT WESTWARD SOUTH OF CUBA BY 36 TO 48
HOURS...WHEREAS THE GFS...GFDL...AND HWRF MODELS MOVE A SOMEWHAT
STRONGER CYCLONE ACROSS CUBA AND INTO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS. BASED ON
THE CURRENT SATELLITE TRENDS AND REPORTS FROM RECON AIRCRAFT...THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK LEANS TOWARD THE GFS...GFDL...AND HWRF
SOLUTIONS...ALBEIT SOMEWHAT SLOWER. BY 72 HOURS...EVEN IF PALOMA
REMAINS VERTICALLY INTACT...THE HURRICANE'S FORWARD MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO BE BLOCKED BY A SURFACE TO 700 MB RIDGE LOCATED EAST OF
THE BAHAMAS. THIS WILL ALSO ACT TO INCREASE THE VERTICAL SHEAR
ACROSS THE SYSTEM AND CAUSING THE LOW- AND UPPER-LEVEL CIRCULATIONS
TO DECOUPLE...INDUCING RAPID WEAKENING. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK
IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS TO THE RIGHT OF THE
MODEL CONSENSUS AFTER 48 HOURS.

SIGNIFICANT VERTICAL SHEAR IS NOT FORECAST BY THE SHIPS MODEL TO
AFFECT PALOMA UNTIL AROUND 12 HOURS...SO THERE IS STILL A BRIEF
WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR THE HURRICANE TO STRENGTHEN A LITTLE MORE
BEFORE IT REACHES LITTLE CAYMAN AND CAYMAN BRAC. HOWEVER...BY 24
HOURS...THE VERTICAL SHEAR IS FORECAST BY ALL THE GLOBAL MODELS TO
INCREASE TO AT LEAST 30 KT...WHICH SHOULD INDUCE A STEADY WEAKENING
TREND. IT IS INTERESTING THAT THE GFDL AND HWRF MODELS DO NOT MAKE
PALOMA A 105-KT HURRICANE UNTIL 24-36 HOURS...EVEN THOUGH IT IS
ALREADY OCCURRING. HOWEVER...THOSE FORECASTS HAVE BEEN DISCOUNTED
GIVEN THE STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND LAND INTERACTION THAT ARE
EXPECTED TO AFFECT PALOMA AT THOSE TIME PERIODS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      08/0300Z 19.1N  80.9W   100 KT
 12HR VT     08/1200Z 19.8N  80.3W   100 KT
 24HR VT     09/0000Z 20.5N  79.2W    90 KT
 36HR VT     09/1200Z 21.2N  78.0W    70 KT...INLAND
 48HR VT     10/0000Z 21.7N  77.1W    50 KT
 72HR VT     11/0000Z 22.4N  76.2W    40 KT...DISSIPATING
 96HR VT     12/0000Z 23.0N  76.0W    30 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT     13/0000Z 23.5N  76.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 
$$
FORECASTER STEWART
 
NNNN


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Page last modified: Tuesday, 21-Apr-2009 12:09:28 UTC