Skip Navigation Links weather.gov   
NOAA logo - Click to go to the NOAA homepage National Weather Service   NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS homepage
National Hurricane Center
Local forecast by
"City, St" or "ZIP"

 
Alternate Formats
   Text     |   Mobile
   Email   |   RSS XML/RSS logo
   About Alternates
Cyclone Forecasts
   Latest Advisory
   Past Advisories
   Audio/Podcasts
   About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
   Atlantic & E Pacific
   Gridded Marine
   About Marine
Tools & Data
   Satellite | Radar
   Analysis Tools
   Aircraft Recon
   GIS Datasets
   Data Archive
Development
   Experimental
   Research
   Forecast Accuracy
Outreach & Education
   Prepare
   Storm Surge
   About Cyclones
   Cyclone Names
   Wind Scale
   Most Extreme
   Forecast Models
   Breakpoints
   Resources
   Glossary | Acronyms
   Frequent Questions
Our Organization
   About NHC
   Mission & Vision
   Staff | Q&A
   Visitors | Virtual Tour
   Library Branch
   NCEP | Newsletter
Contact Us
   Comments
Follow the National Hurricane Cent
er on Facebook Follow the National Hurricane Center on Twitter
FirstGov.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.
 
 

Hurricane PALOMA


ZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
HURRICANE PALOMA DISCUSSION NUMBER   8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL172008
1000 AM EST FRI NOV 07 2008
 
PALOMA IS CONTINUING TO STRENGTHEN THIS MORNING WITH HINTS OF AN EYE
ON VISIBLE SATELLITE PICTURES. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED
TO 75 KT AND IS IN LINE WITH MOST RECENT DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM
TAFB/SAB. FURTHER STRENGTHENING IS LIKELY FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR
SO BEFORE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR INCREASES. CURIOUSLY...THE GFDL/HWRF
NOW SHOW THE HURRICANE COMING UP A BIT SHY OF MAJOR HURRICANE
STATUS. UNTIL WE SEE SOME SIGNS THAT PALOMA IS NOT CONTINUING TO
INTENSIFY...IT IS BEST TO KEEP THE PREVIOUS FORECAST OF THE SYSTEM
BECOMING A MAJOR HURRICANE. BY SUNDAY...THE SHEAR INCREASES TO SUCH
A HIGH DEGREE THAT PALOMA MAY WEAKEN EVEN FASTER THAN SHOWN BELOW.
ON TUESDAY...THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY THAT THE SYSTEM WILL
TRANSITION TO AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE...BUT SINCE THE BAROCLINIC
INFLUENCES SEEM LIMITED...REMNANT LOW SEEMS LIKE THE MORE ACCURATE
TERM. THE CANADIAN TERM POST-TROPICAL MAY ALSO FIT THIS SITUATION. 

SATELLITE IMAGES SUGGEST THAT PALOMA HAS SLOWED SOMEWHAT THIS
MORNING AND IS NOW MOVING 005/6.  VERY LITTLE CHANGE WAS MADE TO
THE EARLY PART OF THE NHC FORECAST AS GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
ON A NORTHWARD THEN NORTHEASTWARD TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM.  THERE ARE
STILL SIGNIFICANT TIMING DIFFERENCES ON HOW FAST PALOMA LEAVES THE
CARIBBEAN...WHICH IS PROBABLY TIED TO HOW QUICKLY THE STORM FALLS
APART.  A POSSIBLE SOLUTION IS THAT THE EFFECTS OF LAND INTERACTION
AND HIGH SHEAR CAUSE THE HURRICANE TO LOSE VERTICAL COHERENCE 
AFTER A CUBAN LANDFALL...CAUSING PALOMA TO SLOW DOWN SIGNIFICANTLY. 
THERE IS ALSO SOME EVIDENCE OF THIS POSSIBILTY IN THE MOST RECENT
GFS AND HWRF MODEL RUNS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS NOT AS FAST THAN
THE PREVIOUS ONE BUT IS STILL AHEAD OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS.  
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      07/1500Z 18.3N  81.6W    75 KT
 12HR VT     08/0000Z 19.1N  81.3W    90 KT
 24HR VT     08/1200Z 19.9N  80.5W   100 KT
 36HR VT     09/0000Z 20.8N  79.4W    90 KT
 48HR VT     09/1200Z 21.6N  78.3W    75 KT...INLAND
 72HR VT     10/1200Z 23.0N  76.5W    50 KT
 96HR VT     11/1200Z 24.5N  74.5W    30 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT     12/1200Z 26.0N  72.0W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
 
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

NNNN


Quick Navigation Links:
Tropical Cyclone Forecasts  -  Tropical Marine Forecasts  -  Data Archive
Outreach  -  Prepare  -  About Cyclones  -  About NHC  -  Contact Us

NOAA/ National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida 33165-2149 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Credits
Information Quality
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Tuesday, 21-Apr-2009 12:09:28 UTC