Tropical Depression SIXTEEN

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TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN DISCUSSION NUMBER   3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL162008
1100 PM EDT TUE OCT 14 2008
 
CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE DEPRESSION HAS
CHANGED LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION DURING THE LAST 6 HOURS. THE SYSTEM
STILL LACKS APPRECIABLE DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER OF
CIRCULATION SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 25 KT IN LINE WITH
SUBJECTIVE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES AND THE EARLIER
RECONNAISSANCE DATA. WITH THE SHEAR EXPECTED TO REMAIN LOW AND SSTS
ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK SUFFICIENTLY WARM...THERE IS SOME
POTENTIAL FOR STRENGTHENING AS LONG AS THE CENTER REMAINS OVER
WATER...ALTHOUGH GIVEN THE LACK OF ORGANIZATION...RAPID DEVELOPMENT
IS NOT LIKELY.  THE LATEST OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST KEEPS THE CENTER
OF THE CYCLONE OVER WATER FOR ABOUT 2 DAYS...BUT ONLY A SMALL
DEVIATION TO THE SOUTH WOULD BRING THE CENTER OVER LAND
SOONER...POTENTIALLY WEAKENING THE SYSTEM FASTER THAN THE OFFICIAL
INTENSITY FORECAST.
 
WITH A STRONG MID-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING NORTH OF THE DEPRESSION...A
GENERAL WESTWARD OR EVEN WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD HEADING IS EXPECTED
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  TRACK MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
ON THIS MOTION AND THE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE
PREVIOUS ONE.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      15/0300Z 16.2N  83.8W    25 KT
 12HR VT     15/1200Z 16.3N  84.6W    30 KT
 24HR VT     16/0000Z 16.3N  85.8W    35 KT
 36HR VT     16/1200Z 16.2N  87.2W    40 KT
 48HR VT     17/0000Z 16.0N  88.5W    40 KT
 72HR VT     18/0000Z 15.5N  91.0W    25 KT...INLAND REMNANT LOW
 96HR VT     19/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER RHOME/SCHAUER CLARK
 
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