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Tropical Depression SIXTEEN


ZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN DISCUSSION NUMBER   2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL162008
500 PM EDT TUE OCT 14 2008
 
CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION HAS THINNED DURING
THE DAY TODAY.  HOWEVER...A FEW BANDS OF THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
RECENTLY DEVELOPED WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER.  THE AIRCRAFT
HAS VERY RECENTLY FIXED A CENTER ABOUT 45 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF THE
APPARENT CENTER SEEN IN VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY...WHICH SUGGEST
THE DEPRESSION IS LESS WELL ORGANIZED THAN IT APPEARS.  FOR THE
TIME BEING...WE WILL GO WITH THE CENTER OF THE BROAD CYCLONIC
ENVELOPE DETERMINED FROM THE SATELLITE IMAGERY...BUT IT IS
CERTAINLY POSSIBLE THAT ADJUSTMENTS MAY BE REQUIRED WHEN WE ARE
MORE CERTAIN OF THE LOCATION OF THE CENTER.  REGARDLESS...
FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS HAVE BEEN VERY LIGHT...AND NO MORE THAN AROUND
25-30 KT IN AND NEAR SOME OF THE CONVECTIVE BANDS.  THE INITIAL
INTENSITY WILL REMAIN 25 KT.
 
WITH SOME UNCERTAINTY...THE DEPRESSION APPEARS TO HAVE TURNED
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD. THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN A LITTLE BETTER
AGREEMENT ON MOVING THE DEPRESSION WESTWARD TO THE SOUTH OF THE
LARGE DEEP-LAYER RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED
STATES. ABOUT HALF OF THE TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE TAKES THE CENTER
INLAND OVER HONDURAS...WHILE THE OTHER HALF OF THE GUIDANCE KEEPS
THE CENTER ALONG OR JUST OFF THE NORTHERN COAST. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST LEANS TO THE LATTER OF THESE SOLUTIONS AND KEEPS THE
CENTER JUST OFFSHORE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...BUT THE NEW
TRACK FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY.
 
THE INTENSITY FORECAST DILEMMA REMAINS THE SAME AS THIS MORNING.  A
TRACK OFFSHORE WOULD KEEP THE SYSTEM OVER WARM WATER AND IN A LOW
SHEAR ENVIRONMENT...FAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING...WHILE A TRACK
SOUTH OF MY FORECAST WOULD BRING THE SYSTEM INLAND MUCH EARLIER.
SINCE THE NEW FORECAST IS A LITTLE CLOSER TO THE COAST AND SHOWS A
LITTLE LESS TIME OVER WATER...THE PEAK INTENSITY IS A LITTLE LOWER
THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
  
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      14/2100Z 15.7N  83.6W    25 KT
 12HR VT     15/0600Z 15.9N  84.3W    30 KT
 24HR VT     15/1800Z 16.1N  85.3W    40 KT
 36HR VT     16/0600Z 16.1N  86.7W    45 KT
 48HR VT     16/1800Z 15.9N  88.1W    45 KT
 72HR VT     17/1800Z 15.5N  90.5W    25 KT...INLAND
 96HR VT     18/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER BROWN/FRANKLIN
 
NNNN


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Page last modified: Tuesday, 21-Apr-2009 12:09:26 UTC