Skip Navigation Links weather.gov   
NOAA logo - Click to go to the NOAA homepage National Weather Service   NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS homepage
National Hurricane Center
Local forecast by
"City, St" or "ZIP"

 
Alternate Formats
   Text     |   Mobile
   Email   |   RSS XML/RSS logo
   About Alternates
Cyclone Forecasts
   Latest Advisory
   Past Advisories
   Audio/Podcasts
   About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
   Atlantic & E Pacific
   Gridded Marine
   About Marine
Tools & Data
   Satellite | Radar
   Analysis Tools
   Aircraft Recon
   GIS Datasets
   Data Archive
Development
   Experimental
   Research
   Forecast Accuracy
Outreach & Education
   Prepare
   Storm Surge
   About Cyclones
   Cyclone Names
   Wind Scale
   Most Extreme
   Forecast Models
   Breakpoints
   Resources
   Glossary | Acronyms
   Frequent Questions
Our Organization
   About NHC
   Mission & Vision
   Staff | Q&A
   Visitors | Virtual Tour
   Library Branch
   NCEP | Newsletter
Contact Us
   Comments
Follow the National Hurricane Center on Facebook Follow the National Hurricane Center on Twitter
Subscribe the National Hurricane Center on YouTube Read the National Hurricane Center Inside the Eye blog on WordPress
FirstGov.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.
 
 

Tropical Storm JOSEPHINE


ZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM JOSEPHINE DISCUSSION NUMBER   6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL102008
1100 AM EDT WED SEP 03 2008
 
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT JOSEPHINE CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY
BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED.  DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES AND A RECENT
QUIKSCAT PASS INDICATE THE INTENSITY IS NOW NEAR 55 KT.   IF
JOSEPHINE HAS ASPIRATIONS OF BECOMING A HURRICANE...IT NEEDS TO DO
SO QUICKLY.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLY
FLOW...ASSOCIATED WITH A TROUGH TO THE WEST...IS BEGINNING TO
IMPINGING UPON JOSEPHINE...AND THE OUTFLOW IS SOMEWHAT RESTRICTED
TO THE NORTHWEST.  ADDITIONALLY...THE PRESENCE OF ARC CLOUDS
EMANATING FROM THE CLOUD CANOPY SUGGEST THAT SOME DRY AIR MIGHT BE
AFFECTING JOSEPHINE.  SINCE THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO GET EVEN
STRONGER AND SSTS ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK GET COOLER... WEAKENING
APPEARS LIKELY.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST GRACIOUSLY ALLOWS FOR A
LITTLE ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING TODAY FOLLOWED BY GRADUAL
WEAKENING.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS A LITTLE HIGHER THAN THE
INTENSITY MODEL CONSENSUS SO JOSEPHINE COULD WEAKER FASTER THAN
SHOWN HERE.  

WITH A LARGE RIDGE TO ITS NORTH...JOSEPHINE CONTINUES TO MOVE ALMOST
DUE WEST AT ABOUT 9 KT.  SINCE THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD
WESTWARD...A MOTION BETWEEN WEST AND WEST-NORTHWEST WITH SOME
INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE ENTIRE FORECAST.
TRACK MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS
NEAR...BUT SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN...THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS. 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      03/1500Z 13.8N  28.8W    55 KT
 12HR VT     04/0000Z 14.1N  30.7W    60 KT
 24HR VT     04/1200Z 14.8N  33.2W    60 KT
 36HR VT     05/0000Z 15.4N  35.6W    55 KT
 48HR VT     05/1200Z 16.0N  38.0W    45 KT
 72HR VT     06/1200Z 17.5N  43.0W    40 KT
 96HR VT     07/1200Z 19.5N  47.5W    35 KT
120HR VT     08/1200Z 22.0N  52.5W    35 KT
 
$$
FORECASTER KNABB/RHOME
 
NNNN


Quick Navigation Links:
Tropical Cyclone Forecasts  -  Tropical Marine Forecasts  -  Data Archive
Outreach  -  Prepare  -  About Cyclones  -  About NHC  -  Contact Us

NOAA/ National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida 33165-2149 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Credits
Information Quality
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Tuesday, 21-Apr-2009 12:09:22 UTC