Tropical Storm JOSEPHINE

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TROPICAL STORM JOSEPHINE DISCUSSION NUMBER   4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL102008
1100 PM EDT TUE SEP 02 2008

THE INTENSIFICATION TREND SEEN EARLIER TODAY WITH JOSEPHINE HAS
STOPPED TONIGHT. ALTHOUGH SATELLITE IMAGES STILL SHOW AN ORGANIZED
CLOUD PATTERN WITH LOTS OF BANDING...CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER HAS
DIMINISHED SOMEWHAT. AN EARLIER QUIKSCAT INDICATED THE MAXIMUM
WINDS WERE AT LEAST 45 KT...IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE SUBJECTIVE
DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL BE HELD AT 45
KT. JOSEPHINE COULD INTENSIFY SOME WHILE THE SHEAR REMAINS LIGHT
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. HOWEVER ALL GLOBAL MODELS THEN SHOW A
SIGNIFICANT INCREASE OF SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR DUE TO AN UPPER-TROUGH
CURRENTLY SEEN IN WATER VAPOR IMAGES DIVING SOUTHWARD AHEAD OF THE
STORM. THIS FEATURE SHOULD LIMIT ANY FURTHER INTENSIFICATION AND
CAUSE AT LEAST SOME SLOW WEAKENING. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS
LOWERED FROM THE PREVIOUS ONE AND IS CLOSE TO THE SHIPS MODEL. IT
IS WORTH NOTING THAT MOST OF THE NHC INTENSITY GUIDANCE NO LONGER
FORECAST JOSEPHINE TO BE A HURRICANE...A BIG CHANGE FROM EARLIER.  

MICROWAVE AND QUIKSCAT DATA SHOW THAT THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS MOVING
A LITTLE SLOWER AND TO THE WEST...ABOUT 280/10.  WEAK RIDGING IS
FORECAST TO PERSIST TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.  THIS RIDGE SHOULD STEER THE STORM IN A WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD FASHION DURING THE PERIOD.  THE MODELS ARE NOT AS
CLUSTERED AS BEFORE WITH THE GFS MUCH FASTER AND SOUTH OF THE OTHER
MODELS WHILE THE HWRF/GFDL REMAIN ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE
ENVELOPE.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SHIFTED SOUTHWARD FROM THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST BUT STILL LIES ON THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE
GUIDANCE ENVELOPE...JUST A BIT SOUTH OF THE HWRF/GFDL.   
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      03/0300Z 13.6N  26.8W    45 KT
 12HR VT     03/1200Z 14.0N  28.8W    55 KT
 24HR VT     04/0000Z 14.7N  31.2W    60 KT
 36HR VT     04/1200Z 15.5N  33.5W    60 KT
 48HR VT     05/0000Z 16.5N  36.0W    55 KT
 72HR VT     06/0000Z 18.0N  40.0W    50 KT
 96HR VT     07/0000Z 19.5N  44.0W    45 KT
120HR VT     08/0000Z 22.0N  49.0W    40 KT
 
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
 
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