Hurricane IKE

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HURRICANE IKE DISCUSSION NUMBER  28
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL092008
1100 PM EDT SUN SEP 07 2008

SATELLITE AND CUBAN RADAR OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT IKE MADE
LANDFALL AROUND 0145 UTC NEAR CABO LUCRECIA.  SATELLITE MICROWAVE
DATA SUGGESTED THAT AN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT OCCURRED SHORTLY BEFORE
LANDFALL BUT IMAGES FROM THE GRAN PIEDRA RADAR IN CUBA SUGGESTED
THAT THE INNER EYEWALL WITH A DIAMETER OF ABOUT 20 N MI WAS STILL
INTACT AS THE CENTER CROSSED THE COAST.  SFMR AND DROPSONDE
OBSERVATIONS FROM A NOAA RESEARCH AIRCRAFT MISSION INDICATE THAT
IKE PROBABLY RE-STRENGTHENED TO 110-115 KT BEFORE LANDFALL IN
EASTERN CUBA.  REGARDLESS...WEAKENING IS NOW EXPECTED AS THE CENTER
MOVES OVER THE LANDMASS OF CUBA.  THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST
SHOWS LESS WEAKENING THAN INDICATED BY THE DECAY SHIPS MODEL...TO
ALLOW FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF THE CENTER EMERGING OVER WATER SOONER
THAN EXPECTED.  ONCE IKE MOVES INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE
COMBINATION OF WARM WATERS AND FAIRLY WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR SHOULD
RESULT IN STRENGTHENING....HOWEVER THERE IS GREAT UNCERTAINTY AS TO
HOW MUCH THE HURRICANE WILL INTENSIFY IN 3 TO 5 DAYS.

INITIAL MOTION IS WESTWARD OR 270/11.  NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES HAVE
BEEN MADE TO THE TRACK FORECAST OR TO THE FORECAST REASONING.  THE
STEERING CURRENT ASSOCIATED WITH A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE TO THE NORTH
AND NORTHEAST OF IKE IS EXPECTED TO CAUSE THE TRACK TO GRADUALLY
BEND TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...AND THE
TRACK MODELS ARE FAIRLY WELL CLUSTERED ON A TRACK ALONG MUCH OF
CUBA.  LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...AFTER IKE IS PREDICTED TO
MOVE INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO...SOME OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS SHOW A
WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE THAT COULD TURN THE HURRICANE MORE NORTHWARD. 
HOWEVER A NUMBER OF MODELS DO NOT SHOW MUCH OF A WEAKNESS OR A
TURN.  SUFFICE TO SAY THAT IT IS SIMPLY TOO EARLY TO SAY WHAT
PORTION OF THE GULF COAST WILL ULTIMATELY BE AFFECTED BY IKE.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      08/0300Z 21.1N  75.8W   105 KT
 12HR VT     08/1200Z 21.4N  77.6W    90 KT...INLAND
 24HR VT     09/0000Z 22.1N  79.9W    80 KT...INLAND
 36HR VT     09/1200Z 22.8N  81.7W    70 KT...INLAND
 48HR VT     10/0000Z 23.6N  83.5W    80 KT...OVER WATER
 72HR VT     11/0000Z 25.0N  86.4W    90 KT
 96HR VT     12/0000Z 26.5N  89.0W   100 KT
120HR VT     13/0000Z 28.0N  92.0W   100 KT
 
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
 
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