Skip Navigation Links weather.gov   
NOAA logo - Click to go to the NOAA homepage National Weather Service   NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS homepage
National Hurricane Center
Local forecast by
"City, St" or "ZIP"

 
Alternate Formats
   Text     |   Mobile
   Email   |   RSS XML/RSS logo
   About Alternates
Cyclone Forecasts
   Latest Advisory
   Past Advisories
   Audio/Podcasts
   About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
   Atlantic & E Pacific
   Gridded Marine
   About Marine
Tools & Data
   Satellite | Radar
   Analysis Tools
   Aircraft Recon
   GIS Datasets
   Data Archive
Development
   Experimental
   Research
   Forecast Accuracy
Outreach & Education
   Prepare
   Storm Surge
   About Cyclones
   Cyclone Names
   Wind Scale
   Most Extreme
   Forecast Models
   Breakpoints
   Resources
   Glossary | Acronyms
   Frequent Questions
Our Organization
   About NHC
   Mission & Vision
   Staff | Q&A
   Visitors | Virtual Tour
   Library Branch
   NCEP | Newsletter
Contact Us
   Comments
Follow the National Hurricane Cent
er on Facebook Follow the National Hurricane Center on Twitter
FirstGov.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.
 
 

Tropical Storm GUSTAV


ZCZC MIAPWSAT2 ALL                                                  
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM                                                  
TROPICAL STORM GUSTAV WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   4           
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL072008               
0300 UTC TUE AUG 26 2008                                            
                                                                    
AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM GUSTAV WAS LOCATED NEAR       
LATITUDE 16.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 71.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED    
WINDS NEAR 60 KTS...70 MPH...110 KM/HR.                             
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
                                                                    
I.  MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE                
                                                                    
CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF 
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES 
AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.              
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT.  X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS 
THAN 1 PERCENT.                                                     
                                                                    
                                                                    
      - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - -      
                                                                    
VALID TIME   12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN
FORECAST HOUR   12      24      36      48      72      96     120  
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
DISSIPATED       X       X       1       3       6       9      14
TROP DEPRESSION  1       2       4       8       8       8      10
TROPICAL STORM  59      48      35      30      37      32      34
HURRICANE       41      51      60      59      49      51      42
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
HUR CAT 1       38      41      42      35      31      31      23
HUR CAT 2        2       7      13      15      11      12      11
HUR CAT 3        1       2       4       8       6       7       6
HUR CAT 4        1       X       1       1       1       1       2
HUR CAT 5        X       X       X       X       X       X       X
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
FCST MAX WIND   65KT    80KT    75KT    80KT    75KT    75KT    75KT
                                                                    
                                                                    
II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS             
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...                                   
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...                                   
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...                                   
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE               
    IP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)          
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        00Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE         
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                                  
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED  LOCATIONS - - - -  
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
JACKSONVILLE   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)
 
DAYTONA BEACH  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   4( 6)
 
ORLANDO FL     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   5( 9)
 
COCOA BEACH FL 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   5(10)
COCOA BEACH FL 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)
COCOA BEACH FL 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)
 
FT PIERCE FL   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   5( 7)   4(11)
FT PIERCE FL   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)
FT PIERCE FL   64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)
 
W PALM BEACH   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   7(10)   4(14)
W PALM BEACH   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   2( 4)
W PALM BEACH   64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)
 
MIAMI FL       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   8(13)   6(19)
MIAMI FL       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   2( 6)
MIAMI FL       64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)
 
MARATHON FL    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   6( 7)  12(19)   7(26)
MARATHON FL    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   4( 6)   4(10)
MARATHON FL    64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)
 
KEY WEST FL    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)  11(17)   8(25)
KEY WEST FL    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   5(10)
KEY WEST FL    64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   3( 5)
 
MARCO ISLAND   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   8(11)   7(18)
MARCO ISLAND   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   2( 4)
MARCO ISLAND   64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)
 
FT MYERS FL    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   7( 9)   6(15)
FT MYERS FL    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)
 
VENICE FL      34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)   6(12)
VENICE FL      50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)
 
TAMPA FL       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   5( 9)
 
CEDAR KEY FL   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   4( 6)
 
TALLAHASSEE FL 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)
 
ST MARKS FL    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)
 
APALACHICOLA   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)
 
GFMX 290N 850W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   5( 7)
 
PANAMA CITY FL 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)
 
PENSACOLA FL   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)
 
GFMX 290N 870W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   4( 6)
 
MOBILE AL      34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)
 
GULFPORT MS    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)
 
BURAS LA       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)
 
GFMX 280N 890W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)
 
NEW ORLEANS LA 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)
 
GFMX 280N 910W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)
 
BATON ROUGE LA 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)
 
GFMX 280N 930W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)
 
MERIDA MX      34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)
 
COZUMEL MX     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   4( 9)
COZUMEL MX     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)
COZUMEL MX     64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)
 
BELIZE         34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)
 
GUANAJA        34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)
 
GRAND BAHAMA   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   6(10)   4(14)
GRAND BAHAMA   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   1( 4)
GRAND BAHAMA   64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)
 
NEW PROVIDENCE 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   9(11)   6(17)   4(21)
NEW PROVIDENCE 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   2( 5)   2( 7)
NEW PROVIDENCE 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)
 
ANDROS         34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)  13(17)   7(24)   4(28)
ANDROS         50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   4( 8)   1( 9)
ANDROS         64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)   1( 5)
 
GREAT EXUMA    34  X   X( X)   3( 3)   6( 9)  12(21)   4(25)   1(26)
GREAT EXUMA    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)   2( 8)   X( 8)
GREAT EXUMA    64  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   1( 4)
 
SAN SALVADOR   34  X   X( X)   2( 2)   4( 6)   6(12)   4(16)   1(17)
SAN SALVADOR   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   2( 4)   1( 5)
SAN SALVADOR   64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)
 
MAYAGUANA      34  X   1( 1)   4( 5)   6(11)   6(17)   2(19)   X(19)
MAYAGUANA      50  X   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   2( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)
MAYAGUANA      64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
GRAND TURK     34  X   2( 2)   2( 4)   3( 7)   3(10)   X(10)   1(11)
 
CP SAN ANTONIO 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   8( 9)   8(17)
CP SAN ANTONIO 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   3( 7)
CP SAN ANTONIO 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)
 
HAVANA         34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   6( 7)  13(20)   7(27)
HAVANA         50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   5(10)
HAVANA         64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   2( 4)
 
ISLE OF PINES  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   6( 7)  13(20)   7(27)
ISLE OF PINES  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   5( 7)   3(10)
ISLE OF PINES  64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   1( 4)
 
CIENFUEGOS     34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)  15(18)  14(32)   5(37)
CIENFUEGOS     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   5(10)   2(12)
CIENFUEGOS     64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)   1( 5)
 
CAMAGUEY       34  X   1( 1)   4( 5)  12(17)  23(40)   7(47)   3(50)
CAMAGUEY       50  X   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)  11(14)   3(17)   2(19)
CAMAGUEY       64  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)
 
GUANTANAMO BAY 34  X   9( 9)  38(47)  13(60)   6(66)   2(68)   1(69)
GUANTANAMO BAY 50  X   2( 2)  14(16)   9(25)   4(29)   1(30)   1(31)
GUANTANAMO BAY 64  X   1( 1)   3( 4)   5( 9)   2(11)   X(11)   1(12)
 
GRAND CAYMAN   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   9(10)   9(19)   4(23)
GRAND CAYMAN   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   3( 6)   3( 9)
GRAND CAYMAN   64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   1( 4)
 
MONTEGO BAY    34  X   1( 1)   5( 6)  11(17)  13(30)   4(34)   2(36)
MONTEGO BAY    50  X   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   6(10)   2(12)   1(13)
MONTEGO BAY    64  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   X( 5)   1( 6)
 
KINGSTON       34  X   1( 1)   9(10)  12(22)   9(31)   2(33)   1(34)
KINGSTON       50  X   X( X)   2( 2)   4( 6)   3( 9)   2(11)   1(12)
KINGSTON       64  X   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   3( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
LES CAYES      34  4  58(62)   9(71)   2(73)   1(74)   1(75)   X(75)
LES CAYES      50  X  31(31)  11(42)   1(43)   1(44)   X(44)   X(44)
LES CAYES      64  X  13(13)   5(18)   1(19)   1(20)   X(20)   X(20)
 
PORT-AU-PRINCE 34 15  32(47)   4(51)   2(53)   2(55)   X(55)   1(56)
PORT-AU-PRINCE 50  1  12(13)   3(16)   X(16)   2(18)   X(18)   X(18)
PORT-AU-PRINCE 64  X   5( 5)   1( 6)   X( 6)   1( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
 
CAPE BEATA     34 39   3(42)   1(43)   1(44)   1(45)   1(46)   X(46)
CAPE BEATA     50  3   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
CAPE BEATA     64  1   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
PUERTO PLATA   34  1   2( 3)   2( 5)   2( 7)   2( 9)   X( 9)   1(10)
 
SANTO DOMINGO  34  1   1( 2)   1( 3)   1( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER FRANKLIN                                                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
NNNN                                                                


Quick Navigation Links:
Tropical Cyclone Forecasts  -  Tropical Marine Forecasts  -  Data Archive
Outreach  -  Prepare  -  About Cyclones  -  About NHC  -  Contact Us

NOAA/ National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida 33165-2149 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Credits
Information Quality
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Tuesday, 21-Apr-2009 12:09:14 UTC