Skip Navigation Links weather.gov   
NOAA logo - Click to go to the NOAA homepage National Weather Service   NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS homepage
National Hurricane Center
Local forecast by
"City, St" or "ZIP"

 
Alternate Formats
   Text     |   Mobile
   Email   |   RSS XML/RSS logo
   About Alternates
Cyclone Forecasts
   Latest Advisory
   Past Advisories
   Audio/Podcasts
   About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
   Atlantic & E Pacific
   Gridded Marine
   About Marine
Tools & Data
   Satellite | Radar
   Analysis Tools
   Aircraft Recon
   GIS Datasets
   Data Archive
Development
   Experimental
   Research
   Forecast Accuracy
Outreach & Education
   Prepare
   Storm Surge
   About Cyclones
   Cyclone Names
   Wind Scale
   Most Extreme
   Forecast Models
   Breakpoints
   Resources
   Glossary | Acronyms
   Frequent Questions
Our Organization
   About NHC
   Mission & Vision
   Staff | Q&A
   Visitors | Virtual Tour
   Library Branch
   NCEP | Newsletter
Contact Us
   Comments
Follow the National Hurricane Center on Facebook Follow the National Hurricane Center on Twitter
Subscribe the National Hurricane Center on YouTube Read the National Hurricane Center Inside the Eye blog on WordPress
FirstGov.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.
 
 

Tropical Storm GUSTAV


ZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM GUSTAV DISCUSSION NUMBER  19
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL072008
1100 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2008
 
SINCE THE LAST AIRCRAFT FIX OVER WESTERN JAMAICA AT ABOUT 1100
UTC...WHICH INCLUDED A CENTRAL PRESSURE ESTIMATE OF 988 MB...GOES
VISIBLE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT GUSTAV IS REGAINING ORGANIZATION NOW
THAT ITS CENTER HAS EMERGED OVER WATER WEST OF JAMAICA.  THE
ADVISORY INTENSITY IS MAINTAINED AT 55 KT UNTIL WE RECEIVE NEW DATA
FROM THE NEXT AIRCRAFT THIS AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH IT IS POSSIBLE
THAT GUSTAV IS ALREADY A LITTLE STRONGER.  THE CYCLONE WILL HAVE
MORE THAN 24 HOURS OVER THE VERY WARM WATERS OF THE NORTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN...AND BENEATH AN UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE...SO
STRENGTHENING SEEMS IMMINENT AND COULD EVEN BE RAPID.  THE RAPID
INTENSIFICATION INDEX BASED ON THE SHIPS MODEL INDICATES A 28
PERCENT CHANCE OF AN INTENSITY INCREASE OF 30 KT OR MORE DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.  SINCE THERE IS ABOUT 36 HOURS LEFT BEFORE GUSTAV
CROSSES CUBA...THERE REMAINS SOME POSSIBILITY THAT GUSTAV COULD
BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE BEFORE CROSSING THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF
THAT ISLAND.  CONDITIONS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO APPEAR TO SUPPORT A
MAJOR HURRICANE AS WELL...ALTHOUGH WIND SHEAR COULD INCREASE A
LITTLE.  THE NEW OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE
PREVIOUS ONE AND IS A LITTLE HIGHER THAN THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS.
 
GUSTAV IS MOVING AT ABOUT 295/7 BUT IS IN THE PROCESS OF TURNING TO
THE RIGHT IN RESPONSE TO THE RIDGE TO ITS NORTH...AND IS HEADED FOR
A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE THAT IS FORECAST BY ALL MODELS TO DEVELOP
OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. 
THE GUIDANCE IS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT ON A PATH OVER THE WESTERN
PORTIONS OF CUBA IN ROUGHLY 36 HOURS...FOLLOWED BY A TRACK INTO THE
SOUTH-CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO.  THEREAFTER...THE MODELS DIVERGE
TREMENDOUSLY OVER THE NORTHERN GULF DUE TO DIFFERENCES IN HOW THEY
HANDLE THE HIGH MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION.  THE
MODELS THAT SHOW A SLOWER AND MORE WESTWARD MOTION ACROSS THE
NORTHERN GULF SHOW A LITTLE MORE RIDGING EXTENDING SOUTHWESTWARD
FROM THE GREAT LAKES HIGH...WHILE THOSE THAT ARE FASTER AND
STRAIGHT NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF COAST SHOW
LESS OF THAT RIDGING.  THE NEW OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS ADJUSTED
ONLY SLIGHTLY RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND THE
CONSENSUS...GIVING RESPECT TO THE NWS MODELS GFS...GFDL...AND
HWRF...WHICH ALSO SEEM TO DEPICT A SLIGHTLY DEEPER SYSTEM THAT WE
EXPECT GUSTAV TO BE.  NEEDLESS TO SAY...DUE TO THE MODEL SPREAD THE
TRACK FORECAST IS RATHER UNCERTAIN...AND FINAL LANDFALL REMAINS
POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. 
 
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      29/1500Z 18.6N  78.8W    55 KT
 12HR VT     30/0000Z 19.3N  80.0W    70 KT
 24HR VT     30/1200Z 20.8N  81.8W    80 KT
 36HR VT     31/0000Z 22.6N  83.8W    95 KT...OVER WESTERN CUBA
 48HR VT     31/1200Z 24.3N  85.7W   105 KT
 72HR VT     01/1200Z 27.5N  89.0W   105 KT
 96HR VT     02/1200Z 29.5N  91.0W   100 KT...INLAND
120HR VT     03/1200Z 31.0N  93.0W    60 KT...INLAND
 
$$
FORECASTER KNABB
 
NNNN


Quick Navigation Links:
Tropical Cyclone Forecasts  -  Tropical Marine Forecasts  -  Data Archive
Outreach  -  Prepare  -  About Cyclones  -  About NHC  -  Contact Us

NOAA/ National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida 33165 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Credits
Information Quality
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Tuesday, 21-Apr-2009 12:09:14 UTC