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Tropical Storm EDOUARD


ZCZC MIAPWSAT5 ALL                                                  
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM                                                  
TROPICAL STORM EDOUARD WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   7          
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL052008               
0300 UTC TUE AUG 05 2008                                            
                                                                    
AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM EDOUARD WAS LOCATED NEAR      
LATITUDE 28.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 92.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED    
WINDS NEAR 50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/HR.                              
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
                                                                    
I.  MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE                
                                                                    
CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF 
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES 
AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.              
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT.  X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS 
THAN 1 PERCENT.                                                     
                                                                    
                                                                    
      - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - -      
                                                                    
VALID TIME   12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN
FORECAST HOUR   12      24      36      48      72      96     120  
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
DISSIPATED       X       2      18      46       X       X       X
TROP DEPRESSION  4      17      49      40       X       X       X
TROPICAL STORM  86      74      32      14       X       X       X
HURRICANE       10       7       1       X       X       X       X
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
HUR CAT 1        9       7       1       X       X       X       X
HUR CAT 2        X       X       X       X       X       X       X
HUR CAT 3        X       X       X       X       X       X       X
HUR CAT 4        X       X       X       X       X       X       X
HUR CAT 5        X       X       X       X       X       X       X
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
FCST MAX WIND   55KT    45KT    30KT    20KT     0KT     0KT     0KT
                                                                    
                                                                    
II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS             
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...                                   
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...                                   
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...                                   
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE               
    IP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)          
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        00Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE         
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                                  
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED  LOCATIONS - - - -  
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
NEW ORLEANS LA 34  3   X( 3)   X( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
GFMX 280N 910W 34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
 
BATON ROUGE LA 34  5   1( 6)   X( 6)   1( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
 
NEW IBERIA LA  34 26   2(28)   X(28)   X(28)   X(28)   X(28)   X(28)
 
GFMX 280N 930W 34 49   1(50)   X(50)   X(50)   X(50)   X(50)   X(50)
GFMX 280N 930W 50  4   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
SHREVEPORT LA  34  1   5( 6)   1( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
 
PORT ARTHUR TX 34 53  25(78)   X(78)   X(78)   X(78)   X(78)   X(78)
PORT ARTHUR TX 50  6  15(21)   X(21)   X(21)   X(21)   X(21)   X(21)
PORT ARTHUR TX 64  1   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
GALVESTON TX   34 34  36(70)   X(70)   X(70)   X(70)   X(70)   X(70)
GALVESTON TX   50  3  16(19)   X(19)   X(19)   X(19)   X(19)   X(19)
GALVESTON TX   64  X   3( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
HOUSTON TX     34 10  48(58)   2(60)   X(60)   X(60)   X(60)   X(60)
HOUSTON TX     50  1  11(12)   2(14)   X(14)   X(14)   X(14)   X(14)
HOUSTON TX     64  X   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
AUSTIN TX      34  1   8( 9)   8(17)   2(19)   X(19)   X(19)   X(19)
AUSTIN TX      50  X   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
SAN ANTONIO TX 34  1   2( 3)   2( 5)   1( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 
FREEPORT TX    34 11  30(41)   1(42)   X(42)   X(42)   X(42)   X(42)
FREEPORT TX    50  X   7( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
FREEPORT TX    64  X   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
GFMX 280N 950W 34  6   8(14)   X(14)   1(15)   X(15)   X(15)   X(15)
 
PORT O CONNOR  34  2   7( 9)   1(10)   X(10)   X(10)   X(10)   X(10)
 
CORPUS CHRISTI 34  1   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
GFMX 270N 960W 34  1   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER BEVEN                                                    
                                                                    
                                                                    
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