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Tropical Storm EDOUARD


ZCZC MIAPWSAT5 ALL                                                  
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM                                                  
TROPICAL STORM EDOUARD SPECIAL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   2  
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL052008               
2200 UTC SUN AUG 03 2008                                            
                                                                    
AT 2200Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM EDOUARD WAS LOCATED NEAR      
LATITUDE 28.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 88.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED    
WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/HR.                              
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
                                                                    
I.  MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE                
                                                                    
CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF 
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES 
AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.              
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT.  X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS 
THAN 1 PERCENT.                                                     
                                                                    
                                                                    
      - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - -      
                                                                    
VALID TIME   06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI
FORECAST HOUR   12      24      36      48      72      96     120  
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
DISSIPATED       X       1       4       7      52       X       X
TROP DEPRESSION 10      14      17      18      32       X       X
TROPICAL STORM  88      76      55      62      15       X       X
HURRICANE        2       8      24      14       2       X       X
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
HUR CAT 1        2       7      21      11       2       X       X
HUR CAT 2        X       1       3       2       X       X       X
HUR CAT 3        X       X       X       1       X       X       X
HUR CAT 4        X       X       X       X       X       X       X
HUR CAT 5        X       X       X       X       X       X       X
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
FCST MAX WIND   45KT    50KT    60KT    45KT    20KT     0KT     0KT
                                                                    
                                                                    
II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS             
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...                                   
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...                                   
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...                                   
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE               
    IP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)          
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        18Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE         
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                                  
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED  LOCATIONS - - - -  
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
GFMX 290N 870W 34  1   1( 2)   X( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
MOBILE AL      34  X   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
GULFPORT MS    34  1   2( 3)   1( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
BURAS LA       34  7  10(17)   2(19)   X(19)   1(20)   X(20)   X(20)
BURAS LA       50  X   2( 2)   X( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
GFMX 280N 890W 34 61   5(66)   1(67)   X(67)   X(67)   X(67)   X(67)
GFMX 280N 890W 50  7   2( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)
 
JACKSON MS     34  X   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
NEW ORLEANS LA 34  X   8( 8)   3(11)   1(12)   1(13)   X(13)   X(13)
 
GFMX 280N 910W 34  3  46(49)   8(57)   X(57)   1(58)   X(58)   X(58)
GFMX 280N 910W 50  X  12(12)   6(18)   X(18)   X(18)   X(18)   X(18)
GFMX 280N 910W 64  X   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
BATON ROUGE LA 34  X   6( 6)   5(11)   2(13)   X(13)   X(13)   X(13)
 
NEW IBERIA LA  34  X  10(10)  14(24)   3(27)   1(28)   X(28)   X(28)
NEW IBERIA LA  50  X   2( 2)   3( 5)   1( 6)   1( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
 
GFMX 280N 930W 34  X  13(13)  30(43)   4(47)   1(48)   X(48)   X(48)
GFMX 280N 930W 50  X   2( 2)  14(16)   3(19)   1(20)   X(20)   X(20)
GFMX 280N 930W 64  X   X( X)   4( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
SHREVEPORT LA  34  X   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
PORT ARTHUR TX 34  X   2( 2)  28(30)  11(41)   1(42)   X(42)   X(42)
PORT ARTHUR TX 50  X   X( X)   5( 5)   6(11)   1(12)   X(12)   X(12)
PORT ARTHUR TX 64  X   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
GALVESTON TX   34  X   2( 2)  27(29)  15(44)   3(47)   X(47)   X(47)
GALVESTON TX   50  X   X( X)   9( 9)   8(17)   2(19)   X(19)   X(19)
GALVESTON TX   64  X   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
HOUSTON TX     34  X   1( 1)  17(18)  21(39)   3(42)   X(42)   X(42)
HOUSTON TX     50  X   X( X)   2( 2)   9(11)   2(13)   X(13)   X(13)
HOUSTON TX     64  X   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
AUSTIN TX      34  X   X( X)   1( 1)  12(13)  10(23)   X(23)   X(23)
AUSTIN TX      50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
SAN ANTONIO TX 34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   8( 9)   8(17)   X(17)   X(17)
SAN ANTONIO TX 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
FREEPORT TX    34  X   1( 1)  20(21)  18(39)   3(42)   X(42)   X(42)
FREEPORT TX    50  X   X( X)   3( 3)   8(11)   2(13)   X(13)   X(13)
FREEPORT TX    64  X   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
GFMX 280N 950W 34  X   1( 1)  18(19)  13(32)   2(34)   X(34)   X(34)
GFMX 280N 950W 50  X   X( X)   5( 5)   6(11)   2(13)   X(13)   X(13)
GFMX 280N 950W 64  X   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
PORT O CONNOR  34  X   X( X)   8( 8)  15(23)   4(27)   X(27)   X(27)
PORT O CONNOR  50  X   X( X)   2( 2)   4( 6)   2( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)
PORT O CONNOR  64  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)
 
CORPUS CHRISTI 34  X   X( X)   2( 2)   8(10)   5(15)   X(15)   X(15)
CORPUS CHRISTI 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
CORPUS CHRISTI 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)
 
GFMX 270N 960W 34  X   1( 1)   3( 4)   8(12)   3(15)   X(15)   X(15)
GFMX 270N 960W 50  X   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
GFMX 270N 960W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
BROWNSVILLE TX 34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   3( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 
GFMX 250N 960W 34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER FRANKLIN/BLAKE                                                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
NNNN                                                                


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Page last modified: Tuesday, 21-Apr-2009 12:09:10 UTC