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Tropical Storm DOLLY


ZCZC MIAPWSAT4 ALL                                                  
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM                                                  
TROPICAL STORM DOLLY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   6            
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL042008               
2100 UTC MON JUL 21 2008                                            
                                                                    
AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DOLLY WAS LOCATED NEAR        
LATITUDE 23.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 91.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED    
WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/HR.                              
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
                                                                    
I.  MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE                
                                                                    
CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF 
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES 
AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.              
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT.  X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS 
THAN 1 PERCENT.                                                     
                                                                    
                                                                    
      - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - -      
                                                                    
VALID TIME   06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT
FORECAST HOUR   12      24      36      48      72      96     120  
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
DISSIPATED       X       X       1       1      17       X       X
TROP DEPRESSION  1       2       5       3      30       X       X
TROPICAL STORM  83      62      38      35      40       X       X
HURRICANE       16      35      56      62      14       X       X
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
HUR CAT 1       16      32      43      44       9       X       X
HUR CAT 2        X       2      11      14       3       X       X
HUR CAT 3        X       1       2       3       2       X       X
HUR CAT 4        X       X       1       1       X       X       X
HUR CAT 5        X       X       X       X       X       X       X
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
FCST MAX WIND   55KT    60KT    70KT    75KT    40KT     0KT     0KT
                                                                    
                                                                    
II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS             
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...                                   
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...                                   
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...                                   
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE               
    IP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)          
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        18Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE         
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                                  
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED  LOCATIONS - - - -  
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
GFMX 280N 890W 34  2   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
NEW ORLEANS LA 34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
GFMX 280N 910W 34  8   7(15)   1(16)   2(18)   1(19)   X(19)   X(19)
 
BATON ROUGE LA 34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
NEW IBERIA LA  34  X   2( 2)   2( 4)   2( 6)   2( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)
 
GFMX 280N 930W 34  9  13(22)   7(29)   3(32)   2(34)   X(34)   X(34)
GFMX 280N 930W 50  X   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
GFMX 280N 930W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
SHREVEPORT LA  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
PORT ARTHUR TX 34  X   4( 4)   6(10)   5(15)   3(18)   X(18)   X(18)
 
GALVESTON TX   34  X   9( 9)  10(19)   8(27)   4(31)   X(31)   X(31)
GALVESTON TX   50  X   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   2( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
GALVESTON TX   64  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
HOUSTON TX     34  X   5( 5)   8(13)   8(21)   5(26)   X(26)   X(26)
HOUSTON TX     50  X   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   2( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
AUSTIN TX      34  X   1( 1)   4( 5)  11(16)   6(22)   X(22)   X(22)
AUSTIN TX      50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
SAN ANTONIO TX 34  X   1( 1)   6( 7)  16(23)   8(31)   X(31)   X(31)
SAN ANTONIO TX 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   4( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
SAN ANTONIO TX 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)
 
FREEPORT TX    34  1  10(11)  14(25)  10(35)   5(40)   X(40)   X(40)
FREEPORT TX    50  X   X( X)   2( 2)   3( 5)   2( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
FREEPORT TX    64  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)
 
GFMX 280N 950W 34  5  18(23)  18(41)   8(49)   4(53)   X(53)   X(53)
GFMX 280N 950W 50  X   1( 1)   5( 6)   5(11)   3(14)   X(14)   X(14)
GFMX 280N 950W 64  X   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
PORT O CONNOR  34  1  12(13)  21(34)  14(48)   6(54)   X(54)   X(54)
PORT O CONNOR  50  X   X( X)   3( 3)   9(12)   4(16)   X(16)   X(16)
PORT O CONNOR  64  X   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   2( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
CORPUS CHRISTI 34  X  12(12)  23(35)  18(53)   8(61)   X(61)   X(61)
CORPUS CHRISTI 50  X   X( X)   5( 5)  15(20)   6(26)   X(26)   X(26)
CORPUS CHRISTI 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   7( 7)   3(10)   X(10)   X(10)
 
GFMX 270N 960W 34  5  32(37)  26(63)   9(72)   4(76)   X(76)   X(76)
GFMX 270N 960W 50  X   2( 2)  22(24)   9(33)   5(38)   X(38)   X(38)
GFMX 270N 960W 64  X   X( X)   7( 7)   6(13)   3(16)   X(16)   X(16)
 
BROWNSVILLE TX 34  2  23(25)  29(54)  12(66)   5(71)   X(71)   X(71)
BROWNSVILLE TX 50  X   2( 2)  11(13)  12(25)   4(29)   X(29)   X(29)
BROWNSVILLE TX 64  X   X( X)   3( 3)   5( 8)   3(11)   X(11)   X(11)
 
GFMX 250N 960W 34 11  45(56)  20(76)   3(79)   X(79)   X(79)   X(79)
GFMX 250N 960W 50  X  13(13)  20(33)   4(37)   1(38)   X(38)   X(38)
GFMX 250N 960W 64  X   3( 3)   8(11)   2(13)   1(14)   X(14)   X(14)
 
LA PESCO MX    34  1   7( 8)   8(16)   8(24)   4(28)   X(28)   X(28)
LA PESCO MX    50  X   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   2( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
LA PESCO MX    64  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
TAMPICO MX     34  X   4( 4)   4( 8)   4(12)   2(14)   X(14)   X(14)
 
TUXPAN MX      34  X   3( 3)   1( 4)   2( 6)   2( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)
 
MERIDA MX      34  2   2( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER KNABB                                                    
                                                                    
                                                                    
NNNN                                                                


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Page last modified: Tuesday, 21-Apr-2009 12:09:09 UTC