Tropical Storm CRISTOBAL
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TROPICAL STORM CRISTOBAL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032008
2100 UTC SUN JUL 20 2008
AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CRISTOBAL WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 34.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 75.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/HR.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME
I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE
CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES
AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS
THAN 1 PERCENT.
- - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - -
VALID TIME 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI
FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
DISSIPATED X 1 3 7 X X X
TROP DEPRESSION 9 17 20 23 X X X
TROPICAL STORM 88 75 67 58 X X X
HURRICANE 3 7 10 12 X X X
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
HUR CAT 1 3 7 9 10 X X X
HUR CAT 2 X X 1 1 X X X
HUR CAT 3 X X X 1 X X X
HUR CAT 4 X X X X X X X
HUR CAT 5 X X X X X X X
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
FCST MAX WIND 45KT 45KT 45KT 45KT 0KT 0KT 0KT
II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE
IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
18Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
EDDY POINT NS 34 X X( X) X( X) 11(11) X(11) X(11) X(11)
SYDNEY NS 34 X X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6)
SABLE ISLAND 34 X X( X) X( X) 14(14) X(14) X(14) X(14)
HALIFAX NS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 19(20) X(20) X(20) X(20)
HALIFAX NS 50 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
YARMOUTH NS 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 17(21) X(21) X(21) X(21)
YARMOUTH NS 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6)
MONCTON NB 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8)
ST JOHN NB 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) X(10) X(10) X(10)
EASTPORT ME 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9)
BAR HARBOR ME 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6)
AUGUSTA ME 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
PORTLAND ME 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
CONCORD NH 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
BOSTON MA 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
HYANNIS MA 34 X 1( 1) 9(10) 2(12) X(12) X(12) X(12)
NANTUCKET MA 34 X 2( 2) 14(16) 2(18) X(18) X(18) X(18)
PROVIDENCE RI 34 X 1( 1) 4( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6)
HARTFORD CT 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
MONTAUK POINT 34 X 2( 2) 5( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7)
NEW YORK CITY 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
ATLANTIC CITY 34 1 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
DOVER DE 34 1 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
OCEAN CITY MD 34 4 2( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7)
RICHMOND VA 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
NORFOLK VA 34 6 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7)
CAPE HATTERAS 34 48 1(49) X(49) X(49) X(49) X(49) X(49)
MOREHEAD CITY 34 7 X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7)
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FORECASTER BLAKE
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