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Tropical Depression THREE


ZCZC MIAPWSAT3 ALL                                                  
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM                                                  
TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   2       
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL032008               
0900 UTC SAT JUL 19 2008                                            
                                                                    
AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE WAS LOCATED NEAR   
LATITUDE 32.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 79.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED    
WINDS NEAR 25 KTS...30 MPH...45 KM/HR.                              
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
                                                                    
I.  MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE                
                                                                    
CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF 
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES 
AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.              
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT.  X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS 
THAN 1 PERCENT.                                                     
                                                                    
                                                                    
      - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - -      
                                                                    
VALID TIME   18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU
FORECAST HOUR   12      24      36      48      72      96     120  
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
DISSIPATED       4      10      13      16      21       X       X
TROP DEPRESSION 68      43      39      35      30       X       X
TROPICAL STORM  28      46      46      45      42       X       X
HURRICANE        X       1       2       4       8       X       X
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
HUR CAT 1        X       1       2       3       6       X       X
HUR CAT 2        X       X       X       1       2       X       X
HUR CAT 3        X       X       X       X       X       X       X
HUR CAT 4        X       X       X       X       X       X       X
HUR CAT 5        X       X       X       X       X       X       X
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
FCST MAX WIND   30KT    35KT    35KT    35KT    35KT     0KT     0KT
                                                                    
                                                                    
II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS             
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...                                   
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...                                   
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...                                   
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE               
    IP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)          
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        06Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE         
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                                  
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED  LOCATIONS - - - -  
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
BOSTON MA      34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
HYANNIS MA     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
NANTUCKET MA   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 
PROVIDENCE RI  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
HARTFORD CT    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
MONTAUK POINT  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
NEW YORK CITY  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
NEWARK NJ      34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
TRENTON NJ     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
ATLANTIC CITY  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   3( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
BALTIMORE MD   34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
DOVER DE       34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   3( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
ANNAPOLIS MD   34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
WASHINGTON DC  34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
OCEAN CITY MD  34  X   1( 1)   X( 1)   3( 4)   4( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)
 
RICHMOND VA    34  X   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   2( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
NORFOLK VA     34  X   1( 1)   4( 5)   4( 9)   2(11)   X(11)   X(11)
 
GREENSBORO NC  34  X   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
RALEIGH NC     34  X   2( 2)   1( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
CAPE HATTERAS  34  X   6( 6)  13(19)   7(26)   2(28)   X(28)   X(28)
CAPE HATTERAS  50  X   X( X)   3( 3)   2( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
MOREHEAD CITY  34  X  12(12)  12(24)   3(27)   1(28)   X(28)   X(28)
MOREHEAD CITY  50  X   1( 1)   2( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
WILMINGTON NC  34  2  14(16)   5(21)   1(22)   X(22)   X(22)   X(22)
WILMINGTON NC  50  X   2( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
MYRTLE BEACH   34  6   7(13)   2(15)   X(15)   1(16)   X(16)   X(16)
 
CHARLESTON SC  34  3   3( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER AVILA                                                    
                                                                    
                                                                    
NNNN                                                                


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Page last modified: Tuesday, 21-Apr-2009 12:09:08 UTC