Skip Navigation Links weather.gov   
NOAA logo - Click to go to the NOAA homepage National Weather Service   NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS homepage
National Hurricane Center
Local forecast by
"City, St" or "ZIP"

 
Alternate Formats
   Text     |   Mobile
   Email   |   RSS XML/RSS logo
   About Alternates
Cyclone Forecasts
   Latest Advisory
   Past Advisories
   Audio/Podcasts
   About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
   Atlantic & E Pacific
   Gridded Marine
   About Marine
Tools & Data
   Satellite | Radar
   Analysis Tools
   Aircraft Recon
   GIS Datasets
   Data Archive
Development
   Experimental
   Research
   Forecast Accuracy
Outreach & Education
   Prepare
   Storm Surge
   About Cyclones
   Cyclone Names
   Wind Scale
   Most Extreme
   Forecast Models
   Breakpoints
   Resources
   Glossary | Acronyms
   Frequent Questions
Our Organization
   About NHC
   Mission & Vision
   Staff | Q&A
   Visitors | Virtual Tour
   Library Branch
   NCEP | Newsletter
Contact Us
   Comments
Follow the National Hurricane Center on Facebook Follow the National Hurricane Center on Twitter
Subscribe the National Hurricane Center on YouTube Read the National Hurricane Center Inside the Eye blog on WordPress
FirstGov.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.
 
 

Hurricane BERTHA


ZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
HURRICANE BERTHA DISCUSSION NUMBER  18
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL022008
1100 AM EDT MON JUL 07 2008
 
BERTHA'S SATELLITE PRESENTATION HAS BECOME MORE IMPRESSIVE DURING
THE LAST 6 HOURS WITH A DISTINCT EYE NOW APPARENT.  THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 80 KT IN LINE WITH THE CONSENSUS OF THE
VARIOUS SATELLITE ESTIMATES.  IN THE SHORT-TERM...THERE ARE NO
APPARENT ENVIRONMENTAL FACTORS WHICH WOULD INHIBIT FURTHER
INTENSIFICATION TODAY AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST NOW CALLS FOR
BERTHA TO BECOME A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE.  HOWEVER...THE INTENSITY
FORECAST BECOMES MORE UNCERTAIN BEYOND 36 HOURS AS THE GLOBAL
MODELS DISAGREE ON THE DETAILS OF THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.  THE GFS FORECAST THE MOST
UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH BERTHA ESSENTIALLY RUNNING INTO THE
TROUGH.  NOT SURPRISINGLY...THE SHIPS AND LGEM STATISTICAL
MODELS...WHICH INCLUDE ATMOSPHERIC INFORMATION FROM THE GFS...SHOW
CONSIDERABLE WEAKENING.  MEANWHILE...THE UKMET...GFDL...AND HWRF
MODELS SHOWS A MUCH MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT AND DELAY WEAKENING
UNTIL THE VERY END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.  THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY
FORECAST LEANS MORE TOWARDS THE HIGHER SHEAR SCENARIO INDICATED BY
THE GFS BUT DOES NOT WEAKEN BERTHA AS FAST AS THE SHIPS AND LGEM
MODELS. 
 
THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE IN THE HURRICANE'S HEADING DURING THE
LAST 6 HOURS WITH THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE ESSENTIALLY
UNCHANGED... 285/13.  HOWEVER...BERTHA IS BEGINNING TO ENCOUNTER A
WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN A GRADUAL
TURN TOWARDS THE NORTH AND A REDUCTION IN FORWARD SPEED.  THE
MODELS GENERALLY AGREE ON THIS EVOLUTION...BUT THERE REMAINS SOME
SPREAD AMONGST THE MODELS ON WHAT LONGITUDE BERTHA WILL TURN NORTH.
WHILE THE DEGREE OF THE TURN HAS IMPORTANT IMPLICATIONS REGARDING
POTENTIAL IMPACTS TO BERMUDA...IT IS MUCH TO EARLY TO DETERMINE IF
BERTHA WILL ACTUALLY THREATEN THAT ISLAND.  HOWEVER...INTERESTS IN
BERMUDA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.  THE NEW
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS NUDGED SLIGHTLY EASTWARD TOWARD THE TRACK
MODEL CONSENSUS. 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      07/1500Z 19.6N  51.3W    80 KT
 12HR VT     08/0000Z 20.3N  53.3W    90 KT
 24HR VT     08/1200Z 21.2N  55.5W    90 KT
 36HR VT     09/0000Z 22.1N  57.5W    85 KT
 48HR VT     09/1200Z 23.2N  59.2W    80 KT
 72HR VT     10/1200Z 25.5N  62.0W    75 KT
 96HR VT     11/1200Z 28.5N  63.5W    70 KT
120HR VT     12/1200Z 31.0N  63.5W    70 KT
 
$$
FORECASTER RHOME
 
NNNN


Quick Navigation Links:
Tropical Cyclone Forecasts  -  Tropical Marine Forecasts  -  Data Archive
Outreach  -  Prepare  -  About Cyclones  -  About NHC  -  Contact Us

NOAA/ National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida 33165-2149 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Credits
Information Quality
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Tuesday, 21-Apr-2009 12:09:05 UTC