Tropical Storm ARTHUR

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TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR DISCUSSION NUMBER   4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL012008
500 AM EDT SUN JUN 01 2008
 
THE CENTER OF ARTHUR IS DIFFICULT TO LOCATE IN NIGHT-VIS
IMAGERY...BUT STILL APPEARS TO BE SLOWLY CROSSING THE SOUTHERN
YUCATAN PENINSULA.  LATEST INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES
STRONG CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY OVER THE GULF OF HONDURAS...NORTHERN
GUATEMALA...AND SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO...BUT NONE NEAR THE CIRCULATION
CENTER.  SINCE TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS COULD STILL BE OCCURRING
OVER THE GULF OF HONDURAS....ARTHUR WILL REMAIN A 35 KT TROPICAL
STORM FOR THIS ADVISORY.  

THE INITIAL MOTION IS WEST AT 6 KT...AND WITH LOW- TO MID-LEVEL
RIDGING IN THE GULF OF MEXICO EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS...A GENERAL WESTWARD MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE.  ALL OF
THE CURRENT GUIDANCE KEEPS THE CENTER OF ARTHUR INLAND OVER
MEXICO...AND IS IN BETTER AGREEMENT THAN PREVIOUS RUNS.  THE
OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE WITH A
SLIGHT ADJUSTMENT TO THE SOUTH.  

WITH THE CENTER OF ARTHUR FORECAST TO REMAIN OVER LAND...MOST LIKELY
THE BEST THAT IT CAN DO IS TO MAINTAIN STORM STRENGTH FOR A FEW
MORE HOURS.  THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR WEAKENING TO
A DEPRESSION LATER TODAY...WITH DEGENERATION TO A REMNANT LOW
EXPECTED IN TWO OR THREE DAYS.  A POSSIBILITY STILL EXISTS THAT THE
CENTER COULD EMERGE OVER THE SOUTHERN BAY OF CAMPECHE....ALTHOUGH
NORTHERLY WIND SHEAR AND DRY AIR PARKED OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO
WOULD LIMIT REDEVELOPMENT SHOULD THIS OCCUR.     

THE PRIMARY THREAT FROM ARTHUR REMAINS THE HEAVY RAINFALL ALONG WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      01/0900Z 18.3N  90.1W    35 KT
 12HR VT     01/1800Z 18.2N  90.8W    30 KT...INLAND
 24HR VT     02/0600Z 18.1N  91.9W    30 KT...INLAND
 36HR VT     02/1800Z 18.0N  93.0W    30 KT...INLAND
 48HR VT     03/0600Z 18.0N  94.0W    30 KT...INLAND
 72HR VT     04/0600Z 18.0N  95.5W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
 96HR VT     05/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
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FORECASTER MAINELLI/FRANKLIN
 
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