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Tropical Storm KIKO


ZCZC MIAPWSEP5 ALL                                                  
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM                                                  
TROPICAL STORM KIKO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  25             
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP152007               
0300 UTC SUN OCT 21 2007                                            
                                                                    
AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KIKO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
18.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 107.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 
60 KTS...70 MPH...110 KM/HR.                                        
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...                                   
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...                                   
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...                                   
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE               
    IP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)          
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        00Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT                     
LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY                    
   PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT                              
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT  7 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED  LOCATIONS - - - -  
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
CABO SAN LUCAS 34  2   4( 6)  10(16)   9(25)   3(28)   X(28)   X(28)
CABO SAN LUCAS 50  X   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   2( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
SAN JOSE CABO  34  2   4( 6)   8(14)   7(21)   4(25)   X(25)   X(25)
SAN JOSE CABO  50  X   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
LA PAZ         34  X   2( 2)   2( 4)   5( 9)   2(11)   1(12)   X(12)
 
CULICAN        34  X   2( 2)   1( 3)   2( 5)   1( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 
MAZATLAN       34  2   4( 6)   3( 9)   1(10)   1(11)   X(11)   X(11)
 
SAN BLAS       34  4   6(10)   3(13)   1(14)   X(14)   X(14)   X(14)
 
P VALLARTA     34  9   6(15)   3(18)   1(19)   X(19)   X(19)   X(19)
 
BARRA NAVIDAD  34  6   4(10)   3(13)   X(13)   X(13)   X(13)   X(13)
 
MANZANILLO     34  3   4( 7)   1( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)
 
ISLA SOCORRO   34  2   4( 6)   7(13)   6(19)   3(22)   1(23)   X(23)
ISLA SOCORRO   50  X   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
ISLA CLARION   34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   3( 4)   2( 6)   X( 6)
 
ISLAS MARIAS   34 14  15(29)   5(34)   1(35)   1(36)   X(36)   X(36)
ISLAS MARIAS   50  X   3( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
 HR POSITIONS  KT                                                   
                                                                    
 12 196N 1075W 34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
 12 196N 1075W 50 67   8(75)   2(77)   X(77)   X(77)   X(77)   X(77)
 12 196N 1075W 64 31   7(38)   1(39)   X(39)   X(39)   X(39)   X(39)
 
 24 202N 1081W 34 73  14(87)   3(90)   1(91)   X(91)   X(91)   X(91)
 24 202N 1081W 50 16  30(46)   6(52)   1(53)   X(53)   X(53)   X(53)
 24 202N 1081W 64  3  15(18)   2(20)   1(21)   X(21)   X(21)   X(21)
 
 36 206N 1090W 34 23  33(56)  12(68)   5(73)   2(75)   X(75)   X(75)
 36 206N 1090W 50  1  14(15)  13(28)   4(32)   2(34)   X(34)   X(34)
 36 206N 1090W 64  X   4( 4)   6(10)   2(12)   X(12)   X(12)   X(12)
 
 48 210N 1105W 34  2  11(13)  20(33)  13(46)   6(52)   X(52)   X(52)
 48 210N 1105W 50  X   1( 1)   5( 6)   9(15)   2(17)   X(17)   X(17)
 48 210N 1105W 64  X   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
 
 72 215N 1137W 34  X   X( X)   2( 2)   5( 7)  11(18)   2(20)   X(20)
 72 215N 1137W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)
 72 215N 1137W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
 
 96 220N 1175W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   3( 6)   1( 7)
 96 220N 1175W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)
 96 220N 1175W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)
 
 
120 225N 1220W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)
120 225N 1220W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)
120 225N 1220W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)
 
               - - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - -
FCST MAX WIND     70     70      65      60      45      30      20
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
 
                                                                    
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER BROWN                                                    
                                                                    
                                                                    
NNNN                                                                


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Page last modified: Friday, 02-Nov-2007 21:21:06 UTC