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Tropical Storm KIKO


ZCZC MIAPWSEP5 ALL                                                  
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM                                                  
TROPICAL STORM KIKO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  24             
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP152007               
2100 UTC SAT OCT 20 2007                                            
                                                                    
AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KIKO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
18.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 106.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 
60 KTS...70 MPH...110 KM/HR.                                        
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...                                   
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...                                   
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...                                   
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE               
    IP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)          
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        18Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT                     
LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY                    
   PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT                              
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT  7 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED  LOCATIONS - - - -  
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
P ABREOJOS     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)
 
CABO SAN LUCAS 34  2   3( 5)  11(16)  11(27)   9(36)   X(36)   X(36)
CABO SAN LUCAS 50  X   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   3( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
 
SAN JOSE CABO  34  2   3( 5)  10(15)   9(24)   7(31)   1(32)   X(32)
SAN JOSE CABO  50  X   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   2( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
LA PAZ         34  X   1( 1)   3( 4)   5( 9)   6(15)   1(16)   X(16)
 
LORETO         34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)
 
LOS MOCHIS     34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   2( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
CULICAN        34  X   1( 1)   2( 3)   2( 5)   3( 8)   1( 9)   X( 9)
 
MAZATLAN       34  2   3( 5)   4( 9)   3(12)   1(13)   X(13)   X(13)
 
SAN BLAS       34  4   6(10)   5(15)   3(18)   1(19)   X(19)   X(19)
 
P VALLARTA     34  7   9(16)   5(21)   2(23)   1(24)   X(24)   X(24)
 
BARRA NAVIDAD  34  7   6(13)   4(17)   1(18)   1(19)   X(19)   X(19)
 
MANZANILLO     34  4   4( 8)   3(11)   1(12)   1(13)   X(13)   X(13)
 
L CARDENAS     34  1   1( 2)   X( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
ISLA SOCORRO   34  2   4( 6)   8(14)   7(21)   7(28)   1(29)   X(29)
ISLA SOCORRO   50  X   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   2( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
ISLA CLARION   34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   5( 6)   3( 9)   X( 9)
 
ISLAS MARIAS   34  9  17(26)   9(35)   4(39)   2(41)   X(41)   X(41)
ISLAS MARIAS   50  X   3( 3)   2( 5)   1( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
 HR POSITIONS  KT                                                   
                                                                    
 12 192N 1074W 34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
 12 192N 1074W 50 66  10(76)   2(78)   1(79)   X(79)   X(79)   X(79)
 12 192N 1074W 64 31  10(41)   1(42)   1(43)   X(43)   X(43)   X(43)
 
 24 199N 1079W 34 73  15(88)   3(91)   2(93)   1(94)   X(94)   X(94)
 24 199N 1079W 50 14  35(49)   7(56)   1(57)   1(58)   X(58)   X(58)
 24 199N 1079W 64  4  17(21)   5(26)   2(28)   X(28)   X(28)   X(28)
 
 36 204N 1086W 34 26  38(64)  11(75)   4(79)   2(81)   X(81)   X(81)
 36 204N 1086W 50  1  20(21)  15(36)   5(41)   2(43)   X(43)   X(43)
 36 204N 1086W 64  X   7( 7)   9(16)   3(19)   1(20)   X(20)   X(20)
 
 48 208N 1097W 34  4  23(27)  22(49)  10(59)   7(66)   X(66)   X(66)
 48 208N 1097W 50  X   3( 3)  11(14)   9(23)   5(28)   X(28)   X(28)
 48 208N 1097W 64  X   X( X)   6( 6)   3( 9)   2(11)   X(11)   X(11)
 
 
 72 215N 1130W 34  X   1( 1)   3( 4)   6(10)  19(29)   4(33)   X(33)
 72 215N 1130W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   6( 7)   1( 8)   X( 8)
 72 215N 1130W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)
 
 
 96 220N 1170W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   5( 9)   1(10)
 96 220N 1170W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)
 96 220N 1170W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)
 
 
120 225N 1210W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)
120 225N 1210W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)
120 225N 1210W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)
 
               - - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - -
FCST MAX WIND     70     75      75      70      60      40      25
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
 
                                                                    
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER BEVEN                                                    
                                                                    
                                                                    
NNNN                                                                


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Page last modified: Friday, 02-Nov-2007 21:21:06 UTC