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Tropical Storm KIKO


ZCZC MIAPWSEP5 ALL                                                  
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM                                                  
TROPICAL STORM KIKO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  17             
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP152007               
0300 UTC FRI OCT 19 2007                                            
                                                                    
AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KIKO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
16.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 104.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 
35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/HR.                                         
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...                                   
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...                                   
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...                                   
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE               
    IP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)          
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        00Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT                     
LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY                    
   PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT                              
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT  7 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED  LOCATIONS - - - -  
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
P ABREOJOS     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)
 
CABO SAN LUCAS 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   5( 7)   8(15)   8(23)
CABO SAN LUCAS 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   3( 6)
 
SAN JOSE CABO  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   6( 7)   8(15)   7(22)
SAN JOSE CABO  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   2( 5)
 
LA PAZ         34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   6( 8)   7(15)
 
LORETO         34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   3( 5)
 
HUATABAMPO     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)
 
LOS MOCHIS     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   4( 7)
 
CULICAN        34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   4( 6)   6(12)
 
MAZATLAN       34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   6( 9)   4(13)   3(16)
 
SAN BLAS       34  X   1( 1)   2( 3)   6( 9)   9(18)   4(22)   3(25)
SAN BLAS       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)
 
P VALLARTA     34  X   2( 2)   7( 9)  11(20)   9(29)   4(33)   2(35)
P VALLARTA     50  X   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   2( 4)   1( 5)   1( 6)
 
BARRA NAVIDAD  34  1  11(12)  14(26)  12(38)   6(44)   2(46)   2(48)
BARRA NAVIDAD  50  X   X( X)   3( 3)   3( 6)   2( 8)   2(10)   X(10)
 
MANZANILLO     34  1   9(10)  13(23)   9(32)   6(38)   2(40)   2(42)
MANZANILLO     50  X   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)   2( 6)   1( 7)   X( 7)
 
L CARDENAS     34  1   2( 3)   4( 7)   4(11)   3(14)   2(16)   1(17)
 
ZIHUATANEJO    34  1   1( 2)   3( 5)   2( 7)   2( 9)   1(10)   1(11)
 
ISLA SOCORRO   34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   7(10)   8(18)   4(22)
ISLA SOCORRO   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   1( 4)
 
ISLA CLARION   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   3( 5)
 
ISLAS MARIAS   34  X   1( 1)   3( 4)   9(13)  12(25)   7(32)   3(35)
ISLAS MARIAS   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   2( 7)   1( 8)
ISLAS MARIAS   64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)
 
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
 HR POSITIONS  KT                                                   
                                                                    
 12 172N 1049W 34 55  16(71)   6(77)   2(79)   2(81)   X(81)   1(82)
 12 172N 1049W 50  3   6( 9)   6(15)   3(18)   1(19)   1(20)   X(20)
 12 172N 1049W 64  X   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)
 
 24 177N 1053W 34 26  33(59)  10(69)   5(74)   2(76)   1(77)   1(78)
 24 177N 1053W 50  1  10(11)   6(17)   5(22)   2(24)   X(24)   1(25)
 24 177N 1053W 64  X   2( 2)   1( 3)   1( 4)   1( 5)   1( 6)   X( 6)
 
 36 182N 1057W 34  8  32(40)  17(57)   8(65)   5(70)   1(71)   2(73)
 36 182N 1057W 50  X   5( 5)  11(16)   7(23)   3(26)   1(27)   X(27)
 36 182N 1057W 64  X   1( 1)   2( 3)   3( 6)   2( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)
 
 48 188N 1065W 34  1  14(15)  23(38)  15(53)   8(61)   3(64)   2(66)
 48 188N 1065W 50  X   1( 1)   7( 8)  10(18)   6(24)   2(26)   1(27)
 48 188N 1065W 64  X   X( X)   2( 2)   4( 6)   2( 8)   1( 9)   1(10)
 
 
 72 195N 1075W 34  X   4( 4)  11(15)  21(36)  13(49)   6(55)   3(58)
 72 195N 1075W 50  X   X( X)   2( 2)   6( 8)   8(16)   4(20)   1(21)
 72 195N 1075W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   3( 5)   2( 7)   X( 7)
 
 
 96 205N 1085W 34  X   1( 1)   3( 4)  12(16)  15(31)  10(41)   5(46)
 96 205N 1085W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   5( 7)   4(11)   2(13)
 96 205N 1085W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   1( 4)   1( 5)
 
 
120 215N 1110W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   6( 8)   9(17)   8(25)
120 215N 1110W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   3( 6)
120 215N 1110W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)
 
               - - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - -
FCST MAX WIND     40     50      60      70      75      80      80
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
 
                                                                    
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER BLAKE                                                    
                                                                    
                                                                    
NNNN                                                                


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Page last modified: Friday, 02-Nov-2007 21:21:06 UTC