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Tropical Depression FIFTEEN-E


ZCZC MIAPWSEP5 ALL                                                  
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM                                                  
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN-E WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   2   
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP152007               
0900 UTC MON OCT 15 2007                                            
                                                                    
AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN-E WAS LOCATED    
NEAR LATITUDE 15.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 108.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM        
SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/HR.                    
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...                                   
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...                                   
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...                                   
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE               
    IP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)          
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        06Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT                     
LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY                    
   PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT                              
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT  7 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED  LOCATIONS - - - -  
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
CABO SAN LUCAS 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)
 
SAN JOSE CABO  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)
 
P VALLARTA     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   1( 4)
 
BARRA NAVIDAD  34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   2( 3)   2( 5)   X( 5)
 
MANZANILLO     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   2( 4)   X( 4)
 
ISLA SOCORRO   34  X   1( 1)   1( 2)   4( 6)   6(12)   5(17)   2(19)
ISLA SOCORRO   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)
 
ISLA CLARION   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   2( 5)
 
ISLAS MARIAS   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   2( 4)   1( 5)
 
CLIPPERTON IS  34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   1( 4)
 
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
 HR POSITIONS  KT                                                   
                                                                    
 12 154N 1090W 34 34  15(49)   6(55)   3(58)   2(60)   1(61)   X(61)
 12 154N 1090W 50  2   4( 6)   3( 9)   3(12)   1(13)   1(14)   X(14)
 12 154N 1090W 64  X   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
 24 156N 1089W 34 30  17(47)   5(52)   4(56)   2(58)   1(59)   1(60)
 24 156N 1089W 50  2   4( 6)   4(10)   2(12)   1(13)   1(14)   X(14)
 24 156N 1089W 64  X   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)
 
 36 158N 1088W 34 25  17(42)   6(48)   5(53)   4(57)   2(59)   X(59)
 36 158N 1088W 50  2   4( 6)   4(10)   3(13)   2(15)   X(15)   1(16)
 36 158N 1088W 64  X   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
 48 162N 1090W 34 12  19(31)   9(40)   6(46)   6(52)   2(54)   X(54)
 48 162N 1090W 50  X   4( 4)   3( 7)   5(12)   1(13)   1(14)   X(14)
 48 162N 1090W 64  X   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   2( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
 
 72 168N 1093W 34  3  12(15)   9(24)  11(35)   5(40)   3(43)   X(43)
 72 168N 1093W 50  X   1( 1)   2( 3)   5( 8)   2(10)   1(11)   1(12)
 72 168N 1093W 64  X   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
 
 96 175N 1100W 34  1   3( 4)   5( 9)  11(20)   8(28)   4(32)   1(33)
 96 175N 1100W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   4( 7)   1( 8)   1( 9)
 96 175N 1100W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)
 
 
120 185N 1110W 34  X   1( 1)   1( 2)   5( 7)   6(13)   5(18)   3(21)
120 185N 1110W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   1( 4)
120 185N 1110W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
               - - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - -
FCST MAX WIND     35     40      45      50      50      50      45
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
 
                                                                    
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER PASCH                                                    
                                                                    
                                                                    
NNNN                                                                


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Page last modified: Friday, 02-Nov-2007 21:21:06 UTC