Tropical Storm JULIETTE

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TROPICAL STORM JULIETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER   6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP142007
800 AM PDT SUN SEP 30 2007
 
CENTER FIXES ARE UNCERTAIN SO THE INITIAL POSITION AND MOTION
ESTIMATES WEIGH HEAVILY ON CONTINUITY.  SINCE THE LOCATION OF THE
CENTER IS NOT WELL KNOWN...THIS ALSO LENDS UNCERTAINTY TO THE
ESTIMATED INTENSITY.  IF THE CENTER IS WELL-EMBEDDED WITHIN THE
DEEP CONVECTION...THEN THE WINDS COULD BE CLOSE TO 45 KT AS GIVEN
BY THE DVORAK ESTIMATES.  HOWEVER IF THE CENTER IS NEAR THE EDGE OF
THE CONVECTION...JULIETTE IS A WEAKER STORM.  THE CURRENT INTENSITY
IS SET AT 40 KT AS A COMPROMISE.  THERE IS A SMALL WINDOW OF
OPPORTUNITY FOR STRENGTHENING SO THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS A
SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION TODAY...SIMILAR TO THAT INDICATED BY THE
SHIPS LGEM GUIDANCE.  WITHIN 24 HOURS OR SO...HOWEVER...JULIETTE
WILL BE MOVING INTO AN ENVIRONMENT OF COOLER WATERS AND MORE STABLE
AIR.  WEAKENING TO A REMNANT LOW IS LIKELY WITHIN 72 HOURS OR
SOONER.
 
INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 335/10.  JULIETTE CONTINUES TO
PROCEED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD IN THE FLOW BETWEEN A MID-LEVEL RIDGE
OVER MEXICO AND A TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHWARD FROM CALIFORNIA.  THIS
REGIME IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.  LATER IN
THE PERIOD...AS THE CYCLONE LOSES ITS DEEP CONVECTION...THE
INCREASINGLY SHALLOW SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO BE STEERED PRIMARILY BY
THE LOWER-TROPOSPHERIC FLOW.  SINCE THE GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THAT
THIS LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL BE QUITE WEAK...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST KEEP
THE DISSIPATING CYCLONE STATIONARY IN 2-3 DAYS.  THIS IS SIMILAR TO
THE PREVIOUS NHC FORECAST AND NOT FAR FROM THE CONSENSUS OF THE
TRACK MODELS.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      30/1500Z 18.7N 113.0W    40 KT
 12HR VT     01/0000Z 19.9N 113.6W    45 KT
 24HR VT     01/1200Z 21.7N 114.4W    40 KT
 36HR VT     02/0000Z 23.0N 115.1W    35 KT
 48HR VT     02/1200Z 23.5N 115.5W    30 KT
 72HR VT     03/1200Z 23.5N 115.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 96HR VT     04/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
 
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