Tropical Storm JULIETTE

ZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM JULIETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER   5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP142007
200 AM PDT SUN SEP 30 2007
 
AN AMSU PASS AT 0520Z HELPED ESTABLISH THE LOCATION AND MOTION OF
JULIET...WHICH ARE ALONG THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE DEEP CONVECTION
AND 329/9...RESPECTIVELY.  THE CYCLONE REMAINS UNDER EASTERLY SHEAR
THAT HAS PREVENTED IT FROM BECOMING APPRECIABLY BETTER ORGANIZED. 
ALTHOUGH SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB WERE 45
KT...A QUIKSCAT EDGE PASS AT 02Z DID NOT SUPPORT WINDS THAT HIGH. 
THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 35 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.

JULIET IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD BETWEEN A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL
RIDGE OVER MEXICO AND A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING
SOUTHWARD FROM CALIFORNIA.  AS LONG AS JULIET MAINTAINS DEEP
CONVECTION...IT SHOULD CONTINUE MOVING IN BETWEEN THESE
FEATURES...WITH PERHAPS SOME INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED.  IN ANOTHER
36 HOURS OR SO...HOWEVER...JULIETTE WILL BE MOVING OVER COOLER
WATERS AND THE CONVECTION SHOULD DIMINISH.  AT THAT TIME...MOST OF
THE MODEL GUIDANCE SLOWS THE FORWARD MOTION DRAMATICALLY IN THE
LOW-LEVEL STRATO-CU FILLED NORTHERLIES WEST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT OF THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST...ALTHOUGH STILL ALONG THE LEFT EDGE OF THE
GUIDANCE ENVELOPE...AND IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE GFS.

EASTERLY SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO BECOME SOUTHEASTLY OVER THE NEXT DAY
OF SO...AND A LITTLE STRENGTHENING DURING THIS PERIOD IS POSSIBLE. 
AS MENTIONED ABOVE...HOWEVER...COOLER WATERS ARE LESS THAN TWO DAYS
AWAY...AT WHICH TIME THE COMBINATION OF THE COOLER WATER AND SHEAR
SHOULD RESULT IN A RAPID DEGENERATION OF THE CYCLONE.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      30/0900Z 17.6N 112.6W    35 KT
 12HR VT     30/1800Z 19.0N 113.3W    40 KT
 24HR VT     01/0600Z 20.9N 114.2W    45 KT
 36HR VT     01/1800Z 22.4N 114.8W    40 KT
 48HR VT     02/0600Z 23.0N 115.5W    30 KT
 72HR VT     03/0600Z 23.0N 115.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 96HR VT     04/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
 
NNNN