Tropical Storm JULIETTE

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TROPICAL STORM JULIETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER   3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP142007
200 PM PDT SAT SEP 29 2007
 
VISIBLE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER OF THE TROPICAL
CYCLONE IS EMBEDDED JUST WITHIN THE EDGE OF A SOLID CONVECTIVE
CLUSTER. DVORAK T-NUMBERS HAVE BEEN 2.5 FROM TAFB AND SAB FOR TWO
CYCLES NOW...AND WITH A CLEARER KNOWLEDGE OF WHERE THE LOW-LEVEL
CENTER IS IN RELATION TO THE DEEP CONVECTION...THE DEPRESSION IS
BEING UPGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM JULIETTE.

SEVERAL MICROWAVE PASSES THROUGHOUT THE MORNING...AS WELL AS
CONFIRMATION FROM VISIBLE IMAGERY...INDICATE THAT THE LOW-LEVEL
CENTER IS SLIGHTLY FARTHER NORTH THAN PREVIOUSLY ESTIMATED.
THEREFORE...JULIETTE HAS BEEN MOVING IN A NORTHWESTERLY DIRECTION
WITH AN INITIAL MOTION OF 310/10. IN THE SHORT-TERM...THE CYCLONE
WILL CONTINUE THIS GENERAL MOTION AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL RIDGE LOCATED OVER NORTHERN MEXICO. AFTER ABOUT 36-48
HOURS...JULIETTE IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AND WILL LIKELY TAKE A
WESTWARD TURN WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED AS IT BECOMES
STEERED BY THE LOWER-LEVEL FLOW OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THIS
SCENARIO FOLLOWS THE SOLUTIONS PROVIDED BY THE GFS...GFDL...AND
HWRF MODELS.

JULIETTE IS IN THE PROCESS OF A SLOW AND GRADUAL STRENGTHENING WHICH
SHOULD ONLY LAST ABOUT 36 HOURS OR SO. THEREAFTER...VERTICAL SHEAR
WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTHEAST AND THE CYCLONE WILL MOVE INTO A
MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT LOCATED TO ITS NORTHWEST. IN ADDITION...THE
LATEST FORECAST TRACK TAKES JULIETTE OVER A TONGUE OF COOLER WATERS
THAT DEVELOPED BETWEEN SOCORRO AND CLARION ISLANDS WITHIN THE PAST
WEEK. ONCE THESE FACTORS COME INTO PLAY...JULIETTE IS EXPECTED TO
WEAKEN RATHER RAPIDLY TO A REMNANT LOW BY DAY 4 THEN DISSIPATE BY
DAY 5. IF SOME OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS HAVE THEIR WAY...JULIETTE
COULD MEET HER LESS-THAN-SHAKESPEAREAN DEMISE SOONER THAN INDICATED
IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      29/2100Z 16.5N 112.1W    35 KT
 12HR VT     30/0600Z 17.7N 113.0W    40 KT
 24HR VT     30/1800Z 19.4N 114.0W    45 KT
 36HR VT     01/0600Z 20.9N 115.1W    45 KT
 48HR VT     01/1800Z 21.5N 116.0W    40 KT
 72HR VT     02/1800Z 21.7N 117.0W    30 KT
 96HR VT     03/1800Z 21.7N 118.0W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT     04/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER BERG/AVILA
 
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