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Tropical Depression THIRTEEN-E


ZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP132007
200 PM PDT WED SEP 19 2007
 
THE DEPRESSION LOOKS A LITTLE LESS ORGANIZED THIS AFTERNOON AS THE
CLOUD TOPS HAVE CONTINUED TO WARM.  HOWEVER....A SMALL BURST OF NEW
CONVECTION HAS RECENTLY DEVELOPED NEAR THE CENTER.  DVORAK CURRENT 
INTENSITY ESTIMATES REMAIN 30 KT AND 25 KT FROM SAB AND TAFB
RESPECTIVELY AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL REMAIN 30 KT.  THE
ENVIRONMENT AHEAD OF THE DEPRESSION APPEARS RATHER HOSTILE. 
HOWEVER...THE INTENSITY FORECAST ALLOWS FOR A LITTLE STRENGTHENING
IN THE SHORT-TERM AS CONVECTION COULD INCREASE WITH THE DIURNAL
MAXIMUM LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY THURSDAY.  THEREAFTER...STABLE
AIR...COOLER SST...AND INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR SHOULD INDUCE
WEAKENING.  THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW BY 72
HOURS AND DISSIPATE THEREAFTER. 
 
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 270/6. THE FORECAST REASONING REMAINS
UNCHANGED WITH THE RIDGE NORTH OF THE DEPRESSION FORECAST TO WEAKEN
AS A LARGE MID-TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DROPS SOUTHWARD OFF THE COAST
OF CALIFORNIA.  THIS WILL LEAVE THE CYCLONE IN WEAK STEERING
CURRENTS AND THE DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO DECELERATE.  AFTER 48
HOURS...THE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE TROUGH WILL DIG FAR ENOUGH SOUTH
TO INDUCE A NORTHEASTWARD OR NORTHWARD MOTION.  THE NEW TRACK
FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY THROUGH 36 HOURS...BUT
HAS BEEN MOVED WESTWARD AT 48 AND 72 HOURS.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      19/2100Z 17.4N 128.8W    30 KT
 12HR VT     20/0600Z 17.4N 129.5W    35 KT
 24HR VT     20/1800Z 17.3N 130.2W    30 KT
 36HR VT     21/0600Z 17.1N 130.6W    30 KT
 48HR VT     21/1800Z 17.4N 130.6W    25 KT
 72HR VT     22/1800Z 18.8N 128.9W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
 96HR VT     23/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER BROWN
 
NNNN


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Page last modified: Friday, 02-Nov-2007 21:21:04 UTC