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Tropical Storm IVO


ZCZC MIAPWSEP2 ALL                                                  
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM                                                  
TROPICAL STORM IVO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  19              
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP122007               
0300 UTC SUN SEP 23 2007                                            
                                                                    
AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM IVO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 
22.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 111.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 
40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/HR.                                         
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...                                   
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...                                   
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...                                   
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE               
    IP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)          
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        00Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT                     
LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY                    
   PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT                              
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT  7 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED  LOCATIONS - - - -  
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
CABO SAN LUCAS 34  1   5( 6)   4(10)   X(10)   1(11)   X(11)   X(11)
 
SAN JOSE CABO  34  X   5( 5)   5(10)   X(10)   1(11)   X(11)   X(11)
 
LA PAZ         34  1   5( 6)   5(11)   1(12)   1(13)   X(13)   X(13)
 
LOS MOCHIS     34  X   X( X)   2( 2)   X( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
CULICAN        34  X   1( 1)   4( 5)   1( 6)   1( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
 
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
 HR POSITIONS  KT                                                   
                                                                    
 12 226N 1113W 34 67   2(69)   1(70)   1(71)   X(71)   X(71)   X(71)
 12 226N 1113W 50  1   1( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)
 12 226N 1113W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)
 
 24 231N 1107W 34 10  11(21)   2(23)   X(23)   1(24)   X(24)   X(24)
 24 231N 1107W 50  X   1( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)
 24 231N 1107W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)
 
 36 237N 1100W 34  1   5( 6)   7(13)   X(13)   1(14)   X(14)   X(14)
 36 237N 1100W 50  X   1( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)
 36 237N 1100W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)
 
 48 240N 1097W 34  X   4( 4)   7(11)   1(12)   X(12)   X(12)   X(12)
 48 240N 1097W 50  X   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)
 48 240N 1097W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)
 
 
 72 245N 1095W 34  X   2( 2)   6( 8)   1( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)
 72 245N 1095W 50  X   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 72 245N 1095W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)
 
 
 96 255N 1095W 34  X   X( X)   3( 3)   1( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 96 255N 1095W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)
 96 255N 1095W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)
 
               - - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - -
FCST MAX WIND     35     35      30      25      20      20       0
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
 
                                                                    
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER BLAKE                                                    
                                                                    
                                                                    
NNNN                                                                


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Page last modified: Friday, 02-Nov-2007 21:21:04 UTC