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Hurricane IVO


ZCZC MIAPWSEP2 ALL                                                  
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM                                                  
HURRICANE IVO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   7                   
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP122007               
0300 UTC THU SEP 20 2007                                            
                                                                    
AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IVO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.1 
NORTH...LONGITUDE 112.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 65   
KTS...75 MPH...120 KM/HR.                                           
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...                                   
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...                                   
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...                                   
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE               
    IP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)          
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        00Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT                     
LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY                    
   PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT                              
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT  7 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED  LOCATIONS - - - -  
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
P ABREOJOS     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)
 
CABO SAN LUCAS 34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)  10(15)   4(19)   2(21)
CABO SAN LUCAS 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)
 
SAN JOSE CABO  34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   9(13)   4(17)   2(19)
SAN JOSE CABO  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)
 
LA PAZ         34  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   6( 8)   5(13)   1(14)
LA PAZ         50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)
 
LORETO         34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   1( 4)   1( 5)
 
HUATABAMPO     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   2( 4)
 
LOS MOCHIS     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)   1( 5)
 
CULICAN        34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   3( 7)   2( 9)
 
MAZATLAN       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   1( 4)
 
SAN BLAS       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)
 
P VALLARTA     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)
 
ISLA SOCORRO   34  2   8(10)  11(21)   7(28)   5(33)   1(34)   1(35)
ISLA SOCORRO   50  X   1( 1)   2( 3)   2( 5)   2( 7)   X( 7)   1( 8)
 
ISLA CLARION   34  5  37(42)  16(58)   7(65)   2(67)   X(67)   X(67)
ISLA CLARION   50  X  11(11)  10(21)   4(25)   1(26)   1(27)   X(27)
ISLA CLARION   64  X   3( 3)   4( 7)   2( 9)   1(10)   X(10)   X(10)
 
ISLAS MARIAS   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   1( 4)   2( 6)
 
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
 HR POSITIONS  KT                                                   
                                                                    
 12 169N 1132W 34 92   4(96)   X(96)   1(97)   X(97)   X(97)   X(97)
 12 169N 1132W 50 57  14(71)   2(73)   X(73)   X(73)   X(73)   X(73)
 12 169N 1132W 64 26  11(37)   1(38)   X(38)   X(38)   X(38)   X(38)
 
 24 180N 1135W 34 41  42(83)   5(88)   2(90)   1(91)   X(91)   X(91)
 24 180N 1135W 50  4  42(46)   8(54)   2(56)   1(57)   X(57)   X(57)
 24 180N 1135W 64  1  19(20)   6(26)   2(28)   X(28)   X(28)   X(28)
 
 36 190N 1135W 34  4  48(52)  19(71)   5(76)   2(78)   1(79)   X(79)
 36 190N 1135W 50  X  15(15)  19(34)   7(41)   2(43)   X(43)   X(43)
 36 190N 1135W 64  X   4( 4)  11(15)   3(18)   1(19)   X(19)   X(19)
 
 48 200N 1130W 34  1  16(17)  30(47)  13(60)   7(67)   1(68)   X(68)
 48 200N 1130W 50  X   2( 2)  11(13)  11(24)   5(29)   X(29)   X(29)
 48 200N 1130W 64  X   X( X)   4( 4)   6(10)   2(12)   X(12)   X(12)
 
 
 72 215N 1120W 34  1   2( 3)   9(12)  16(28)  14(42)   3(45)   X(45)
 72 215N 1120W 50  X   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)   7(13)   2(15)   X(15)
 72 215N 1120W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   3( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
 
 96 225N 1110W 34  X   1( 1)   2( 3)   8(11)  13(24)   5(29)   1(30)
 96 225N 1110W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)   1( 7)   X( 7)
 96 225N 1110W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)
 
 
120 240N 1100W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   6( 8)   4(12)   2(14)
120 240N 1100W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)
120 240N 1100W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)
 
               - - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - -
FCST MAX WIND     70     75      75      70      60      50      50
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
 
                                                                    
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER AVILA                                                    
                                                                    
                                                                    
NNNN                                                                


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Page last modified: Friday, 02-Nov-2007 21:21:04 UTC