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Tropical Storm IVO


ZCZC MIAPWSEP2 ALL                                                  
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM                                                  
TROPICAL STORM IVO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   6              
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP122007               
2100 UTC WED SEP 19 2007                                            
                                                                    
AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM IVO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 
15.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 111.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 
60 KTS...70 MPH...110 KM/HR.                                        
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...                                   
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...                                   
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...                                   
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE               
    IP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)          
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        18Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT                     
LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY                    
   PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT                              
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT  7 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED  LOCATIONS - - - -  
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
P ABREOJOS     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)
 
CABO SAN LUCAS 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)  10(12)   5(17)   3(20)
CABO SAN LUCAS 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   1( 4)
 
SAN JOSE CABO  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   9(10)   5(15)   3(18)
SAN JOSE CABO  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   1( 4)
 
LA PAZ         34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)   6(12)   2(14)
LA PAZ         50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)
 
LORETO         34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)   2( 6)
 
HUATABAMPO     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   2( 4)
 
LOS MOCHIS     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   1( 5)
 
CULICAN        34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   4( 7)   3(10)
 
MAZATLAN       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   2( 5)
 
SAN BLAS       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)
 
P VALLARTA     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)
 
ISLA SOCORRO   34  2   4( 6)   7(13)   8(21)  12(33)   2(35)   X(35)
ISLA SOCORRO   50  X   1( 1)   X( 1)   2( 3)   4( 7)   1( 8)   X( 8)
ISLA SOCORRO   64  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)
 
ISLA CLARION   34  2  22(24)  29(53)  13(66)   6(72)   1(73)   1(74)
ISLA CLARION   50  X   3( 3)  17(20)  11(31)   3(34)   1(35)   X(35)
ISLA CLARION   64  X   X( X)   8( 8)   5(13)   2(15)   X(15)   X(15)
 
ISLAS MARIAS   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)   2( 6)
 
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
 HR POSITIONS  KT                                                   
                                                                    
 12 160N 1130W 34 92   4(96)   X(96)   1(97)   X(97)   X(97)   X(97)
 12 160N 1130W 50 53  15(68)   2(70)   1(71)   X(71)   X(71)   X(71)
 12 160N 1130W 64 31  11(42)   2(44)   1(45)   X(45)   X(45)   X(45)
 
 24 168N 1137W 34 51  32(83)   7(90)   1(91)   1(92)   X(92)   X(92)
 24 168N 1137W 50  6  39(45)   9(54)   2(56)   1(57)   X(57)   X(57)
 24 168N 1137W 64  2  21(23)   7(30)   2(32)   X(32)   X(32)   X(32)
 
 36 179N 1140W 34  5  43(48)  22(70)   6(76)   5(81)   1(82)   X(82)
 36 179N 1140W 50  X  10(10)  23(33)   7(40)   3(43)   1(44)   X(44)
 36 179N 1140W 64  X   3( 3)  13(16)   4(20)   1(21)   X(21)   X(21)
 
 48 189N 1137W 34  2  14(16)  31(47)  15(62)   9(71)   1(72)   1(73)
 48 189N 1137W 50  X   2( 2)  12(14)  11(25)   7(32)   1(33)   X(33)
 48 189N 1137W 64  X   X( X)   4( 4)   8(12)   3(15)   1(16)   X(16)
 
 
 72 210N 1125W 34  X   2( 2)   5( 7)  13(20)  23(43)   5(48)   1(49)
 72 210N 1125W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)  11(14)   2(16)   X(16)
 72 210N 1125W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   1( 6)   X( 6)
 
 
 96 220N 1115W 34  X   X( X)   2( 2)   5( 7)  20(27)   6(33)   3(36)
 96 220N 1115W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   6( 7)   2( 9)   1(10)
 96 220N 1115W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)
 
 
120 230N 1095W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   9(10)   5(15)   3(18)
120 230N 1095W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)
120 230N 1095W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)
 
               - - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - -
FCST MAX WIND     70     75      75      75      70      60      55
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
 
                                                                    
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER BEVEN                                                    
                                                                    
                                                                    
NNNN                                                                


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Page last modified: Friday, 02-Nov-2007 21:21:04 UTC