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Tropical Storm IVO


ZCZC MIAPWSEP2 ALL                                                  
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM                                                  
TROPICAL STORM IVO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   4              
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP122007               
0900 UTC WED SEP 19 2007                                            
                                                                    
AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM IVO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 
14.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 110.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 
50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/HR.                                         
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...                                   
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...                                   
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...                                   
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE               
    IP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)          
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        06Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT                     
LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY                    
   PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT                              
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT  7 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED  LOCATIONS - - - -  
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
CABO SAN LUCAS 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   5( 9)   1(10)
 
SAN JOSE CABO  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   5( 8)   2(10)
 
LA PAZ         34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   4( 6)   2( 8)
 
LORETO         34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)
 
LOS MOCHIS     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)
 
CULICAN        34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   1( 5)
 
ISLA SOCORRO   34  X   2( 2)   5( 7)   6(13)   8(21)   4(25)   X(25)
ISLA SOCORRO   50  X   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   2( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)
 
ISLA CLARION   34  X   2( 2)  19(21)  16(37)  11(48)   4(52)   1(53)
ISLA CLARION   50  X   X( X)   4( 4)   8(12)   7(19)   1(20)   1(21)
ISLA CLARION   64  X   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   4( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)
 
ISLAS MARIAS   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)
 
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
 HR POSITIONS  KT                                                   
                                                                    
 12 154N 1112W 34 64  13(77)   1(78)   1(79)   1(80)   1(81)   X(81)
 12 154N 1112W 50 28  13(41)   1(42)   X(42)   1(43)   X(43)   X(43)
 12 154N 1112W 64  4   2( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 
 24 164N 1125W 34  1  54(55)  12(67)   4(71)   1(72)   1(73)   X(73)
 24 164N 1125W 50  X  22(22)  10(32)   2(34)   1(35)   1(36)   X(36)
 24 164N 1125W 64  X   6( 6)   4(10)   X(10)   1(11)   X(11)   X(11)
 
 36 173N 1134W 34  X  19(19)  35(54)   8(62)   3(65)   2(67)   X(67)
 36 173N 1134W 50  X   3( 3)  19(22)   5(27)   3(30)   1(31)   X(31)
 36 173N 1134W 64  X   1( 1)   7( 8)   2(10)   1(11)   X(11)   X(11)
 
 48 182N 1138W 34  X   4( 4)  31(35)  14(49)  10(59)   2(61)   X(61)
 48 182N 1138W 50  X   X( X)   9( 9)   9(18)   6(24)   1(25)   X(25)
 48 182N 1138W 64  X   X( X)   3( 3)   4( 7)   2( 9)   1(10)   X(10)
 
 
 72 200N 1135W 34  X   1( 1)   5( 6)  14(20)  18(38)   5(43)   X(43)
 72 200N 1135W 50  X   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   8(13)   2(15)   X(15)
 72 200N 1135W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)
 
 
 96 210N 1125W 34  X   1( 1)   1( 2)   6( 8)  16(24)   6(30)   1(31)
 96 210N 1125W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   2( 7)   X( 7)
 96 210N 1125W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)
 
 
120 215N 1120W 34  X   X( X)   2( 2)   3( 5)  13(18)   6(24)   2(26)
120 215N 1120W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   2( 5)   1( 6)
120 215N 1120W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   1( 2)
 
               - - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - -
FCST MAX WIND     55     60      65      65      60      55      50
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
 
                                                                    
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER PASCH                                                    
                                                                    
                                                                    
NNNN                                                                


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Page last modified: Friday, 02-Nov-2007 21:21:04 UTC