Skip Navigation Links weather.gov   
NOAA logo - Click to go to the NOAA homepage National Weather Service   NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS homepage
National Hurricane Center
Local forecast by
"City, St" or "ZIP"

 
Alternate Formats
   Text     |   Mobile
   Email   |   RSS XML/RSS logo
   About Alternates
Cyclone Forecasts
   Latest Advisory
   Past Advisories
   Audio/Podcasts
   About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
   Atlantic & E Pacific
   Gridded Marine
   About Marine
Tools & Data
   Satellite | Radar
   Analysis Tools
   Aircraft Recon
   GIS Datasets
   Data Archive
Development
   Experimental
   Research
   Forecast Accuracy
Outreach & Education
   Prepare
   Storm Surge
   About Cyclones
   Cyclone Names
   Wind Scale
   Most Extreme
   Forecast Models
   Breakpoints
   Resources
   Glossary | Acronyms
   Frequent Questions
Our Organization
   About NHC
   Mission & Vision
   Staff | Q&A
   Visitors | Virtual Tour
   Library Branch
   NCEP | Newsletter
Contact Us
   Comments
Follow the National Hurricane Cent
er on Facebook Follow the National Hurricane Center on Twitter
FirstGov.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.
 
 

Tropical Depression TWELVE-E


ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE-E SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER   1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP122007
1000 AM PDT TUE SEP 18 2007
 
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE AREA OF DISTURBED
WEATHER SOUTHWEST OF THE COAST OF MEXICO HAS BECOME BETTER
ORGANIZED...WITH CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER. 
SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 25 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB...AND A
QUIKSCAT OVERPASS NEAR 1330Z SUGGESTED MAXIMUM WINDS OF 25-30 KT. 
THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET TO 25 KT.

THE CENTER POSITION IS A LITTLE UNCERTAIN...WITH QUIKSCAT SUGGESTING
A POSITION SOMEWHAT TO THE SOUTHWEST OF MICROWAVE AND CONVENTIONAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY.  THIS YIELDS A SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN MOTION OF
290/11.  THE DEPRESSION IS ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF OF A MID-LEVEL
RIDGE EXTENDING WESTWARD FROM NORTHERN MEXICO.  THE DYNAMICAL
MODELS FORECAST THIS RIDGE TO BREAK DURING THE NEXT THREE DAYS AS A
LARGE DEEP-LAYER LOW MOVES SOUTHWARD OVER CALIFORNIA.  THIS SHOULD
ALLOW THE DEPRESSION TO TURN NORTHWARD AND THEN NORTHEASTWARD BY
THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.  HOWEVER...THE LOW DOES NOT MOVE
FAR ENOUGH SOUTH FOR ACCELERATION AFTER RECURVATURE...WITH THE GFDL
AND HWRF MODELS SHOWING A SLOW EASTWARD MOTION.  THE FORECAST TRACK
CALLS FOR RECURVATURE AND DECELERATION DURING THE FORECAST
PERIOD...WITH A LITTLE MORE NORTHERLY MOTION THAN CALLED FOR BY THE
GFDL AND HWRF. 

THE CYCLONE IS CURRENTLY IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF LIGHT NORTHWESTERLY
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.  THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECAST THIS TO
CONTINUE FOR 48-72 HR...FOLLOWED BY A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN THE
SHEAR.  COMBINED WITH THE DEPRESSION MOVING OVER COOLER WATER AT
ABOUT 72 HR...THIS EVOLUTION WOULD SUGGEST GRADUAL STRENGTHENING
THROUGH 72 HR FOLLOWED BY WEAKENING.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS IN
BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE SHIPS MODEL.  THE GFDL CALLS FOR THE SYSTEM
TO REACH HURRICANE STRENGTH BEFORE WEAKENING...SO THERE IS A CHANCE
IT COULD BECOME STRONGER THAN FORECAST BEFORE THE SHEAR INCREASES.
  
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      18/1700Z 13.4N 107.9W    25 KT
 12HR VT     19/0000Z 13.9N 109.0W    30 KT
 24HR VT     19/1200Z 14.7N 111.2W    35 KT
 36HR VT     20/0000Z 15.5N 112.8W    40 KT
 48HR VT     20/1200Z 16.4N 114.1W    45 KT
 72HR VT     21/1200Z 18.5N 115.0W    50 KT
 96HR VT     22/1200Z 20.0N 114.5W    40 KT
120HR VT     23/1200Z 21.0N 113.0W    30 KT
 
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
 
NNNN


Quick Navigation Links:
Tropical Cyclone Forecasts  -  Tropical Marine Forecasts  -  Data Archive
Outreach  -  Prepare  -  About Cyclones  -  About NHC  -  Contact Us

NOAA/ National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida 33165-2149 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Credits
Information Quality
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Friday, 02-Nov-2007 21:21:04 UTC