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Tropical Storm HENRIETTE


ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM HENRIETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER  12
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP112007
800 AM PDT SUN SEP 02 2007
 
WHILE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES WERE UNCHANGED AT 1200 UTC...DEEP
CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER HAS SINCE INCREASED AND A NEW BAND IS
FORMING TO THE NORTH.  RECENT MICROWAVE DATA ALSO SHOW THAT THE
CYCLONE HAS A SMALL CORE.  HENRIETTE COULD BE ON THE VERGE OF
BECOMING A HURRICANE BUT I PREFER TO WAIT UNTIL VISIBLE IMAGERY
CONFIRMS THE CENTER LOCATION AND STRUCTURE.  ACCORDINGLY...THE
INITIAL INTENSITY WILL REMAIN AT 60 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.    
 
ALL INDICATIONS ARE THAT HENRIETTE WILL BE LOCATED IN A SEEMINGLY
IDEAL ENVIRONMENT FOR STRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT 36-48 HOURS.
UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IS ALREADY UNRESTRICTED IN ALL QUADRANTS AND
GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THE ANTICYCLONE CURRENTLY OVER HENRIETTE
BECOMING BETTER DEFINED DURING THE NEW FEW DAYS.  ADDITIONALLY...
SSTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE AMPLY WARM.  THE SHIPS RAPID
INTENSIFICATION INDEX INDICATES A HIGHER THAN USUAL CHANCE FOR
RAPID INTENSIFICATION.  THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS NUDGED
UPWARDS AND IS A LITTLE HIGHER THAN ICON.  BEYOND 48 HOURS...
COOLERS WATERS AND POSSIBLE INTERACTION WITH LAND ARE EXPECTED TO
RESULT IN WEAKENING. 
 
HENRIETTE HAS BEEN MOVING A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST TRACK...WITH AN INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATED AT 295/6.  THE 
SYNOPTIC STEERING PATTERN CONSISTS PRIMARILY OF A MID-TROPOSPHERIC
RIDGE CURRENTLY OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES.  GLOBAL MODELS
SHOW THIS RIDGE GRADUALLY SHIFTING EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS AS A LARGE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES THE WEST
COAST OF THE UNITED STATES.  THIS WOULD ALLOW HENRIETTE TO
GRADUALLY TURN NORTHWESTWARD THEN NORTHWARD.  CONVERSELY...THE GFDL
SHOWS A SLIGHTLY WEAKER RIDGE DURING THE FIRST COUPLE OF DAYS
ALLOWING THE CYCLONE TO MOVE NORTHWARD ALMOST INSTANTLY AND THEN
TURN NORTHEAST AS THE TROUGH REACHES THE WEST COAST OF THE U.S. 
WHILE THE GFDL REMAINS THE EASTERNMOST OUTLIER...IT SHOULD BE NOTED
THAT THIS MODEL PERFORMED VERY WELL IN SIMILAR SITUATIONS LAST
YEAR.   IN PARTICULAR...THE GFDL MODEL OUTPERFORMED THE GLOBAL
MODELS DURING JOHN AND LANE...TWO HURRICANES WHICH SIMILARLY
PARALLELED THE COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO.   THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS
ADJUSTED A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS ONE IN DEFERENCE TO
THE GFDL MODEL AND IS A LITTLE EAST OF THE DYNAMICAL MODEL
CONSENSUS. 
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN
BAJA PENINSULA LATER TODAY. 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      02/1500Z 18.8N 106.7W    60 KT
 12HR VT     03/0000Z 19.2N 107.6W    70 KT
 24HR VT     03/1200Z 20.0N 109.0W    75 KT
 36HR VT     04/0000Z 21.0N 110.2W    85 KT
 48HR VT     04/1200Z 22.0N 111.3W    80 KT
 72HR VT     05/1200Z 24.0N 112.5W    70 KT
 96HR VT     06/1200Z 27.0N 113.0W    50 KT...INLAND OVER BAJA
120HR VT     07/1200Z 30.1N 113.0W    30 KT
 
$$
FORECASTER RHOME
 
NNNN


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Page last modified: Friday, 02-Nov-2007 21:21:03 UTC