Tropical Storm HENRIETTE

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TROPICAL STORM HENRIETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER   8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP112007
800 AM PDT SAT SEP 01 2007

THE CLOUD PATTERN REMAINS LARGE BUT HAS NOT CHANGED VERY MUCH IN
ORGANIZATION AND THE CENTER CONTINUES TO BE DIFFICULT TO LOCATE. 
DVORAK T-NUMBERS SUGGEST THAT THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS AT 45
KNOTS. THE CIRCULATION IS BEGINNING TO MOVE AWAY FROM LAND AND BOTH
SHEAR AND SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE CONDUCIVE FOR STRENGTHENING.
THEREFORE...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR A GRADUAL
INTENSIFICATION AND HENRIETTE IS FORECAST TO BECOME A
HURRICANE IN A DAY OR SO.  

HENRIETTE HAS BEEN MOVING ON A STEADY WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK OR 295
DEGREES AT 10 KNOTS. THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH IS FORECAST TO EXPAND A
LITTLE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AND THIS PATTERN COULD FORCE THE
CYCLONE TO MOVE TEMPORARILY ON MORE WESTERLY TRACK.
THEREAFTER...THE RIDGE WEAKENS AND THE FORECAST BECOME HIGHLY
UNCERTAIN.  ONCE AGAIN A GROUP OF TRACK MODELS BRING THE CYCLONE
WELL WEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA WHERE THE OCEAN IS COOLER RESULTING IN
A GRADUAL WEAKENING. ANOTHER GROUP OF MODELS BRINGS HENRIETTE OVER
BAJA CALIFORNIA OR EVEN THE GULF OF CORTES WHERE THE WATER IS WARM
AND STRENGTHENING COULD CONTINUE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST OPTED FOR
THE FIRST OPTION AND KEEPS HENRIETTE WEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA AND
WEAKENING. THIS IN FACT...SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS OFFICIAL
FORECAST.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      01/1500Z 17.8N 104.3W    45 KT
 12HR VT     02/0000Z 18.5N 105.7W    50 KT
 24HR VT     02/1200Z 19.2N 107.4W    60 KT
 36HR VT     03/0000Z 19.5N 109.0W    65 KT
 48HR VT     03/1200Z 20.0N 110.5W    70 KT
 72HR VT     04/1200Z 21.5N 113.0W    70 KT
 96HR VT     05/1200Z 23.0N 114.1W    60 KT
120HR VT     06/1200Z 26.0N 115.5W    50 KT
 
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
 
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