Tropical Storm HENRIETTE

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TROPICAL STORM HENRIETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER   6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP112007
800 PM PDT FRI AUG 31 2007
 
THIS EVENING'S SATELLITE PRESENTATION DEPICTS A SLIGHT CHANGE IN
HENRIETTE'S CLOUD PATTERN.  ALTHOUGH THE CIRCULATION CENTER REMAINS
JUST BENEATH THE NORTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE DEEPEST
CONVECTION...THE COLDEST CLOUD TOP CANOPY HAS INCREASED SOMEWHAT IN
AREAL EXTENT.  DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 45 KT FROM BOTH TAFB
AND SAB...AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 45 KT.

VERY LITTLE ADJUSTMENT HAS BEEN MADE TO THE PREVIOUS INTENSITY
FORECAST.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CONFORMS WITH A BLEND OF THE SUPER
ENSEMBLE AND THE LOGISTICAL GROWTH EQUATION MODEL...WHICH BOTH
INDICATE HURRICANE STRENGTH IN 48 HOURS.  BEYOND DAY 2...A SLIGHT
WEAKENING IS INDICATED AS 10-20 KT UPPER LEVEL WESTERLIES ASSOCIATED
WITH A RETROGRADING UPPER TROUGH OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA ARE EXPECTED
TO GRADUALLY SPREAD SOUTHWARD.
 
BASED ON AN EARLIER 1752Z TRMM OVERPASS...HENRIETTE'S CENTER
LOCATION HAS BEEN ADJUSTED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD...AND THE INITIAL
MOTION IS CURRENTLY 300/10.  A MID- TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE EXTENDING
SOUTHWESTWARD FROM THE NORTHWEST PORTION OF MEXICO SHOULD INFLUENCE
A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION DURING THE NEXT 72 HOURS. 
AFTERWARD...THE PICTURE BECOMES A BIT UNCLEAR.  THE GFS...SUPER
ENSEMBLE...AND THE NOGAPS ALL FORECAST A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST
IN RESPONSE TO AN INCREASING WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE JUST WEST OF THE
PENINSULA.  ON THE OTHER HAND...THE UKMET...HWRF AND THE GFDL
SUGGEST THAT THE RIDGING WILL BUILD WESTWARD OVER SOUTHERN BAJA
CALIFORNIA...INSTEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED AMPLIFYING WEAKNESS. 
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A COMPROMISE OF BOTH MODEL CLUSTER
SOLUTIONS...WHICH INDICATES A CONTINUED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION
BUT SIGNIFICANTLY SLOWER THAN THE FIRST 48 HOURS OF THE TRACK
FORECAST. 
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      01/0300Z 17.1N 102.1W    45 KT
 12HR VT     01/1200Z 17.8N 103.5W    50 KT
 24HR VT     02/0000Z 18.7N 105.1W    55 KT
 36HR VT     02/1200Z 19.5N 106.6W    60 KT
 48HR VT     03/0000Z 20.2N 108.2W    65 KT
 72HR VT     04/0000Z 21.5N 111.0W    65 KT
 96HR VT     05/0000Z 22.5N 113.0W    60 KT
120HR VT     06/0000Z 24.0N 115.0W    50 KT
 
$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS/BEVEN
 
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