Tropical Depression ELEVEN-E

ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP112007
200 AM PDT FRI AUG 31 2007
 
THE DEPRESSION HAS BEEN GAINING ORGANIZATION DURING THE PAST FEW
HOURS.  GOES-EAST IMAGERY FOLLOWING THE SATELLITE ECLIPSE PERIOD
HAS REVEALED A SUBSTANTIAL INCREASE IN BOTH THE DEPTH AND COVERAGE
OF CONVECTION...INCLUDING RIGHT OVER THE ESTIMATED LOCATION OF THE
LOW-LEVEL CENTER.  EVEN THOUGH THE CENTER REMAINS OFFSHORE...
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND ACAPULCO RADAR IMAGERY INDICATE THAT HEAVY
RAINS ARE OCCURRING ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST.  DVORAK INTENSITY
ESTIMATES AT 06Z WERE NOT QUITE YET A CONSENSUS 2.5...SO THE
ADVISORY INTENSITY IS HELD AT 30 KT.  SINCE CONVECTION HAS
INCREASED SINCE 06Z...THE DEPRESSION IS PROBABLY ON VERGE OF
BECOMING TROPICAL STORM.  THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS
ESSENTIALLY UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY IN CALLING FOR
GRADUAL STRENGTHENING...AS THE CURRENT EASTERLY SHEAR IS FORECAST
TO LESSEN DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  THE FORECAST STILL
INDICATES HURRICANE STRENGTH BY 72 HOURS...CONSISTENT WITH THE
SHIPS AND LGEM GUIDANCE...EVEN THOUGH THE GFDL AND HWRF DO NOT
FORECAST MUCH INTENSIFICATION.
 
BASED ON AN EARLIER 00Z WINDSAT OVERPASS...AND RADAR IMAGERY FROM
ACAPULCO MEXICO...THE CENTER LOCATION HAS BEEN ADJUSTED
SOUTHWARD...AND THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS NOW 300/9.  THAT
MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS AS THE RIDGE TO THE
NORTH OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE REMAINS IN PLACE.  BEYOND THAT TIME
MOST OF THE MODELS FORECAST THAT RIDGE TO WEAKEN.  IF THE CYCLONE
STRENGTHENS AS FORECAST IT WILL LIKELY TURN NORTHWESTWARD LATE IN
THE FORECAST PERIOD INTO THAT WEAKNESS...ALONG THE LINES OF THE
ECMWF AND GFS TRACK FORECASTS.  IF IT FOR SOME REASON IS
WEAKER...AS THE GFDL AND HWRF ARE SUGGESTING...THE TRACK COULD END
UP BEING FARTHER SOUTH IN THE LOWER-LEVEL FLOW.
 
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      31/0900Z 15.3N  99.3W    30 KT
 12HR VT     31/1800Z 16.0N 100.5W    40 KT
 24HR VT     01/0600Z 16.9N 102.1W    45 KT
 36HR VT     01/1800Z 17.8N 103.7W    50 KT
 48HR VT     02/0600Z 18.5N 105.3W    55 KT
 72HR VT     03/0600Z 19.5N 108.0W    65 KT
 96HR VT     04/0600Z 21.5N 110.5W    70 KT
120HR VT     05/0600Z 23.5N 112.5W    65 KT
 
$$
FORECASTER KNABB
 
NNNN