Tropical Storm GIL

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TROPICAL STORM GIL DISCUSSION NUMBER   7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP102007
800 PM PDT THU AUG 30 2007
 
CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND AN EARLIER AMSR-E MICROWAVE
OVERPASS INDICATE THAT THE CENTER OF GIL REMAINS BENEATH THE
NORTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE CONVECTIVE MASS...SUGGESTING THAT
EASTERLY SHEAR IS STILL AFFECTING THE TROPICAL CYCLONE.  ALTHOUGH
DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 35 KT FROM BOTH AGENCIES...THE MOST
RECENT IMAGES SUGGEST THAT THE -80C CLOUD TOP CANOPY IS
EXPANDING...PARTICULARLY OVER THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT. 
CONSEQUENTLY...THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS AT 40 KT.
 
IT IS A BIT OF A MYSTERY WHETHER OR NOT THE UNFAVORABLE
THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT...INDICATIVE BY THE RATHER LARGE AREA OF
STRATOCUMULUS JUST TO THE WEST OF THE CYCLONE...WILL OUTWEIGH THE
EXPECTED DIMINISHING VERTICAL SHEAR OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.  THE
GFDL AND THE SHIPS MAINTAIN A 40 TO 50 KT SYSTEM THROUGH 96
HOURS...WHILE THE SUPER ENSEMBLE...ICON...AND THE LGEM INDICATE A
GRADUAL WEAKENING TREND BEYOND 36 HOURS.  THE LATTER INTENSITY
MODELS SEEM MORE REASONABLE...ESPECIALLY SINCE GIL IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE OVER COOLER WATERS IN 48 HOURS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS
SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE...INDICATING LITTLE CHANGE DURING
THE NEXT 36 HOURS...WITH A WEAKENING TREND TO A REMNANT LOW
EXPECTED TOWARD THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION IS UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY...265/9...AS WELL AS THE TRACK FORECAST PHILOSOPHY.
MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE EXTENDING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD FROM THE
SOUTHWEST U.S. SHOULD STEER THE CYCLONE IN A GENERALLY WESTWARD
MOTION DURING THE NEXT TWO DAYS.  AFTERWARD...A TURN TO THE
WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED AS GIL ROUNDS THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF
THE RIDGE.  BEYOND 96 HOURS...AS GIL WEAKENS TO A REMNANT LOW OVER
COOLER WATERS...THE LOW LAYER EASTERLIES SHOULD INDUCE A TURN BACK
TO THE WEST.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      31/0300Z 19.1N 115.3W    40 KT
 12HR VT     31/1200Z 18.9N 116.8W    40 KT
 24HR VT     01/0000Z 18.9N 118.9W    40 KT
 36HR VT     01/1200Z 18.9N 121.0W    40 KT
 48HR VT     02/0000Z 19.2N 123.2W    35 KT
 72HR VT     03/0000Z 19.9N 127.5W    35 KT
 96HR VT     04/0000Z 20.5N 131.5W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT     05/0000Z 20.5N 135.5W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
 
$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS/BEVEN
 
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